A new study from the JRC examines the effects of climate change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality. And notify: With the current policies, there is a risk of an increase in deaths related to extreme heat.
Excessively high or low temperatures currently cause 407,000 deaths each year
Excessively high or low temperatures significantly affect our comfort. But beyond the discomfort of heat or cold, there is a much more concerning factor that directly affects human health. The summer of 2022 clearly showed us this, a period in which Europe alone recorded over 60,000 heat-related deaths. This impressive number has convinced some European researchers from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to assess the mortality rate related to temperature in the region regarding climate change.
“Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems,” write scientists in The Lancet. “Since localized assessments of the risk of temperature-related mortality are essential for formulating effective public health responses and adaptation strategies, we attempted to estimate” this risk “related to current and future temperatures in four climate change scenarios across all European regions.”
This is the first pan-European assessment in this regard, and the results are thought-provoking. According to researchers, in fact, if global warming can be kept within a 3°C increase, morbidity and mortality related to temperatures would be expected to worsen. And not by a little. With different effects between Northern and Southern Europe.
Mortality rate related to temperature, 4 scenarios
The JRC group has modelled current mortality due to “non-optimal temperatures” in 1,368 European regions across 30 countries – EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom – from 1991 to 2020. The work has considered specific age-related characteristics and local socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities. It projected the current conditions across four different scenario levels for global warming. That is with an increase of 1.5 °C, 2 °C (both targets of the Paris Climate Agreement), 3 °C, and 4 °C.
Until yesterday, the cold claimed more victims than heat did. Let’s start with the current situation. According to the study, the total mortality burden attributable to excessively hot or cold temperatures for the reference period amounts to 407,000 deaths per year across Europe. In detail, about 363,500 people die each year from the cold and as many as 43,700 from excessive heat.
Obviously, a clear spatial heterogeneity has been observed, with higher or lower numbers depending on the geographical location. In general, the JRC explains, the evaluation results also reveal disparities in temperature-related deaths in Europe. “Deaths due to cold currently occur 2.5 times more frequently in the eastern part than in the western part, while deaths due to heat are over six times more common in the southern part than in the northern part.”
“In particular,” the researchers write, “deaths due to cold far exceed those due to heat.” Currently, the approximate ratio is 8.3 to 1.
The data from Italy conforms to the general trend. On a national level, the report shows 41,340 deaths related to the cold and 10,433 related to the heat.
But in a world where climate change is accelerating and intensifying extreme events, we can inevitably expect new trends in temperature-related mortality rates.
How the mortality rate related to temperature will change
The risk of worsening is just around the corner, especially with the current global climate policies. Currently, the world is on a trajectory that would lead to a 3°C increase. And without adaptation measures, the Old Continent should face an additional 55,000 deaths per year.
“In a scenario of 3°C warming, projections show that there could be a threefold increase in heat-related mortality compared to today.” The numbers would increase in all regions, but with a peak in Southern Europe. “According to the study, in a scenario of a 3°C increase in temperature, heat-related deaths in Greece would rise annually from the current 1,730 to 4,767, in France from 3,061 to 13,564, in Italy from 10,433 to 28,285, and in Spain from 4,414 to 20,194.“
This also means that with the advance of global warming, the ratio of deaths due to cold and heat is set to change. Obviously, climate change is not the only factor at play. One factor is also the gradual aging of the population. In other words, where the elderly demographic increases, susceptibility inevitably grows.
The possible future hotspots
The group has identified some areas characterized by a high future risk of heat-related mortality. In these “hotspots,” it is expected that a marginally greater susceptibility (aging population), an increased risk (warming), or a combination of both will lead to a greater increase in the risk of mortality by 2050. Such zones are mainly concentrated in the southern latitudes, particularly in regions of Spain, Italy, and Greece. But they also extend to more northern areas, significantly impacting a substantial part of France.
