A CMCC study maps the growing inequalities driven by the increased use of air conditioning due to global warming
By 2050, emissions and electricity consumption from air conditioning could double
As global temperatures rise, the proportion of the world’s population using air conditioners for cooling could increase by 50% by 2050. This surge may lead to a doubling of electricity consumption and emissions from air conditioning. Additionally, this trend risks exacerbating existing inequalities.
Currently, 27% of the global population uses residential air conditioning. This figure could rise between 33% and 48%, with a central estimate of 41%, depending on climate and socioeconomic scenarios. This growth would inevitably increase emissions, from the current 590 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) to 1,365 MtCO2eq.
More air conditioning emissions, more inequality
Despite global temperature increases, the expansion of air conditioning use won’t happen uniformly across all regions. Higher electricity consumption means higher bills, impacting the geography of energy poverty.
“Assessing projections of cooling adoption and its inequalities holds significant policy implications for global, regional, and national energy planning, as well as for achieving emission reduction goals,” says Giacomo Falchetta, a CMCC researcher and lead author of a new study titled Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050, published in Nature Communications.
To estimate the potential inequalities driven by air conditioning usage, researchers analyzed a household-level microdata database covering more than 500 subnational units across 25 countries, representing 62% of the global population and 73% of global electricity consumption.
“Our projections’ granularity is a key contribution to policy implementation,” Falchetta explains. “For instance, we show that in highly exposed regions, like South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, by 2050, air conditioning will be widely available only to higher-income groups, while the vast majority of poorer households will remain without it.”
