For both 2024 and 2025, the International Energy Agency forecasts an increase not seen since 2007. This growth is driven by cooling needs as well as economic growth in China and India. Solar and wind power combined will account for 75% of the increase.
Solar Power Will Cover Half of the Record Growth in Global Electricity Demand in 2024-25
High temperatures and increased cooling needs will drive global electricity demand to record levels. This year is expected to end with a 4% increase, a significant rise from the 2.5% recorded in 2023. The following year, the trajectory is expected to remain at similar levels, with a 4% increase.
Solar Power Will Cover More Than Half of the Growth in Global Electricity Demand
Solar power will cover this increase by more than 50% (over 75% when including both solar and wind). The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts this in its Electricity Mid-Year Update report released today. The share of global electricity supply from solar panels will rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. Considering renewables, clean electricity is expected to surpass the amount generated from coal for the first time next year.
However, despite the rapid growth of renewables, this scenario is insufficient to cause a significant decline in coal-generated electricity. According to the IEA, it is “unlikely” that global coal power production will decrease this year due to strong demand growth, especially in China and India. Emissions from coal power plants remain on a plateau, with a slight increase expected this year followed by a slight decrease next year.
There is still considerable uncertainty on this front. One factor that could reduce the coal curve is the rebound of hydroelectric power in China, which has shown very positive numbers in the first half of 2024. “If this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decrease in global energy sector emissions in 2024,” notes the IEA.
Global Electricity Demand Trends
As mentioned, India and China are the countries contributing most to the growth in global electricity demand in these two years. In New Delhi, where 2024 is expected to close with an 8% increase, the rise is due to strong economic growth and intensifying heatwaves, which impact cooling consumption. In Beijing, the recovery of many industrial sectors, including clean technology production, is driving electricity demand.
In the United States, which will end 2024 with a 3% increase, the driving factors are cooling needs and growth in demand from data centers. Conversely, the EU will see a more modest increase of 1.7%, following a two-year period of decline due to the energy price crisis.
