The “2024 State of the Climate” report highlights a deterioration, with 20 red-alert indicators in 2023. It identifies 28 feedback loops that could trigger multiple concurrent crises, with a special focus on the melting of permafrost
More than 70% of the main indicators of the climate crisis are at red alert levels, showing a significant worsening compared to last year. This situation endangers “a large part of the very fabric of life on our Planet” and is steering us toward a “critical and unpredictable” phase. Out of the 35 vital parameters of Earth, a staggering 25 are now recording extreme records, up from 20 in 2023. This is stated in the 2024 State of the Climate report, curated by William Ripple of Oregon State University.
The study references several key indicators, such as air and ocean temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, as well as factors like per capita meat production, the number of days with extreme heat, and the frequency of climate disasters. These were selected to provide the broadest and most accurate snapshot of the Planet’s health.
The report’s message is that, while we are on the brink of “irreversible” climate disruption, we are already in an unprecedented situation in the entire history of humankind. “Ecological overshoot, meaning taking more than the Earth can safely generate, has pushed the Planet toward climate conditions more threatening than anything even our prehistoric relatives have ever seen,” emphasizes Ripple.
What do the vital parameters of Earth tell us?
One aspect that the authors of the report emphasize is the possibility that multiple concurrent factors may intertwine and generate global crises of greater scale and complexity. One of the mechanisms underlying this possibility is the triggering of feedback in the Planet’s climate system, which in turn can initiate tipping points.
The report identifies 28 of these feedbacks that can amplify the impact of the climate crisis and highlights their danger: they are not yet integrated into predictive climate models, and consequently, we may be underestimating them. Of particular concern is the permafrost feedback cycle, which involves rising temperatures that cause the thawing of frozen ground at extreme latitudes, leading to increased emissions of CO2 and methane.
Among the vital parameters of Earth at extreme levels, the report notes:
- Record temperatures and sea levels in 2023,
- Annual emissions related to energy exceeding 40 billion tons of CO2 equivalent for the first time in history,
- Unprecedented atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,
- Ocean acidity and heat content at historically high levels,
- The mass of ice in Greenland, the mass of ice in Antarctica, and the average thickness of glaciers are at historic lows.
There are also other concerning factors for the stability of the Earth’s climate system, including:
- An increasing frequency of climate disasters causing damages in the billions of dollars,
- The rate of human population growth (currently around 200,000 new births each day),
- An increase in the number of ruminants (which generate greenhouse gases and are raised using energy-intensive methods) of about 170,000 units per day,
- Annual loss of tree cover globally, increasing from 22.8 to 28.3 million hectares in 2023 in just one year.
