The 2024 edition of the Lancet Countdown outlines a noticeable worsening of indicators on the climate-health nexus. The priority should be to eliminate or convert fossil fuel subsidies, the only way to achieve 'a fair and just transition'
Ten of the 15 main indicators linking health and the climate crisis reached ‘new, concerning records‘ last year. The health and survival threats generated by ‘rapid’ climate change affect every country, not just the most vulnerable ones. And the world stubbornly continues to move in the opposite direction of what the Paris Agreement indicates, without reducing dependence on fossil fuel sources, the primary cause of anthropogenic global warming.
This is the picture of the climate crisis according to the 2024 edition of the Lancet Countdown report, the most authoritative annual compendium on the evolution of the interplay between health and climate, worked on by 122 scientists and involving UN agencies such as the World Health Organization (WHO).
Climate Crisis: The Lancet Countdown Report “Never So Concerning”
“This year’s assessment of the imminent health threats from climate inaction reveals the most alarming results ever obtained in our eight years of monitoring,” warns Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London.
In addition to traditional indicators, the 2024 edition also considers new metrics on extreme precipitation, “stranded” coal resources, loss of tree cover, sand and dust storms, increased nighttime temperatures, and loss of sleep, education, and training on climate and health.
“No individual or economy on the planet is immune to the health threats posed by climate change. The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record greenhouse gas emissions exacerbate these dangerous health impacts and threaten to reverse the limited progress made so far, making a healthy future even more unattainable,” adds Romanello.
Today, the priority should be to eliminate or convert fossil fuel subsidies, both direct and indirect. However, financial resources “continue to be invested in things that undermine our health” instead of being used to “achieve a fair and just transition to clean energy and energy efficiency for a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy,” concludes Romanello.
2023 Records of Climate and Health Indicators
The Lancet report is based on 56 indicators divided into five thematic areas (health damages and climate impact; adaptation and health; mitigation and health benefits; finance; and the degree of political and public engagement on climate and health).
Among the concerning indicators highlighted by the Lancet Countdown are:
- Heat-Related Deaths: In 2023, deaths among those over 65 increased by 167% compared to levels in the 1990s, a record. This figure is 65% higher than expected in a world without a climate crisis.
- Hours of Exposure to High Temperatures: In 2023, the world recorded a historic high with an average of 1,512 hours, resulting in at least a moderate risk of heat stress during light outdoor activities such as walking or cycling. This represents a 27.7% increase compared to the annual average from 1990-1999.
- Lost Work Hours: Increased heat also leads to more lost work hours. In 2023, this indicator reached a record with 512 billion hours lost, a 49% increase compared to the 1990-1999 average. The associated decline in global GDP is estimated at $835 billion, which is 7.6% of GDP in low-income countries and 4.4% in middle-income countries.
- Extreme Precipitation: From 2014 to 2023, extreme precipitation increased over 61% of the Earth’s surface compared to the 1961-1990 average.
- Food Insecurity: Heat and drought have increased the number of people affected by moderate or severe food insecurity by 151 million compared to 1981-2010.
- Climate Suitability for the Spread of Deadly Infectious Diseases Transmitted by Mosquitoes: The risk of dengue transmission by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes has increased by 46%, and by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by 11% in the last decade (2014-2023) compared to the period 1951-1960. A historic high of over 5 million dengue cases was reported in over 80 countries in 2023.
- Fossil Fuel Subsidies: In 2022, 72 out of 86 countries analyzed in the report (84%) subsidized fossil fuels for a record $1.4 trillion, “eclipsing any financial commitment to support climate action made at COP28.” Subsidies exceeded 10% of national health expenditure in 47 countries and 100% in 23 countries.
