It slightly increases the level of ambition compared to a year ago, from -2% to -2.6% of greenhouse gases by the end of the decade compared to 2019 levels. However, the gap with the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement is still vast. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that each country submits to the UN will lead to a peak in emissions before 2030.
Government climate commitments will reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by only 2.6% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. This is an improvement over last year, when the cumulative reduction forecasted by the National Climate Plans submitted to the UN was 2%. However, these are dramatically too low compared to what is necessary to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold, which requires a 43% reduction in emissions by the end of the decade compared to pre-pandemic levels. We are also completely off track for the 2°C target, which requires a 27% reduction by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
This is the most alarming data that emerges from the annual report on National Climate Plans prepared by the UNFCCC, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The plans (formally known as Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) are mandatory but non-binding. All 198 UNFCCC member countries must submit them, but there is no system of sanctions for non-compliance. The level of ambition in the NDCs is a key indicator for assessing the global trajectory of the transition.
“The findings of the report are harsh but not surprising: current national climate plans are far from what is needed to prevent global warming from paralyzing every economy and destroying billions of lives and livelihoods in every country,” comments Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary.
National Climate Plans: Shadows and Lights
34 countries have submitted updated NDCs in the past year until September 9, 2024. In general, the quality of the plans is improving. The UNFCCC’s summary report notes that 94% of the NDCs include quantifiable mitigation targets, 81% set targets for nearly every sector of the economy, more countries are setting absolute greenhouse gas reduction targets, and 91% of countries include methane and 89% include N2O, in addition to CO2.
However, the collective results are still far from what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement. The updated National Climate Plans place the planet on a trajectory of about 53 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) in 2025 and 51.5 GtCO2eq in 2030.
The emissions expected for 2025 are:
- 54% higher than 1990 levels (when they were 34.4 GtCO2eq);
- 11.3% higher than 2010 (47.6 GtCO2eq);
- Identical to those of 2019 (52.9 GtCO2eq).
The global emissions projected for 2030, based on the new NDCs, are:
- 49.8% higher than 1990 levels;
- 8.3% higher than 2010 levels;
- 2.6% lower than 2019 levels;
- 2.8% lower than 2025, suggesting the possibility that global greenhouse gas emissions could peak before the end of the decade.
Towards the Global Emissions Peak Before 2030?
Starting to reverse the emission trajectory before 2030 and bending the curve downward is a critical step towards achieving the Paris targets. The data in the UNFCCC report represent central estimates within a broader range of values. In the best-case scenario, therefore, global emissions could reach 48.3 GtCO2eq in 2030, which would be 8.6% lower than 2019 and 6% lower than 2025.
“However, to reach this peak, it is necessary to implement the conditional elements of the NDCs, which primarily depend on access to more financial resources, technology transfer, technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market-based mechanisms; and the capacity of forests and other ecosystems to absorb carbon,” the UNFCCC emphasizes. If only the unconditional elements of the NDCs were implemented, emissions in 2030 would be 0.8% higher than 2019, meaning no peak.
NDCs Nearly Exhaust the Carbon Budget
Another way to assess the quality of the National Climate Plans relative to the Paris Agreement is to determine how much of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (500 GtCO2eq) and 2°C (1,150 GtCO2eq) is consumed by these plans.
With the latest updates to the NDCs, cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2030 will use up 86% of the carbon budget for 1.5°C. This leaves just 70 GtCO2eq for the post-2030 period, the equivalent of about two years of global emissions. In relation to the 2°C target, they would use 37% of the carbon budget.
