At this rate, we will surpass the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5 degrees in the first half of the 2030s, in just five years. In November, the global temperature was 1.62 degrees above the pre-industrial average. 2024 is closing with a +1.61°C anomaly
It is now “effectively certain” that global warming in 2024 will set a new all-time record and that this year will be the first to end with a global average temperature more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
“With Copernicus data for the penultimate month of the year, we can now confirm with near certainty that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first calendar year above 1.5°C,” stated Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
“This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean that ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever,” added the official from the European satellite monitoring system.
Exceeding 1.5 Degrees: What It Means and How It’s Calculated
To exceed 1.5 degrees under the Paris Agreement, a single year is not sufficient. The threshold established at COP21 in 2015 is calculated as a 30-year average. But what does this mean?
Exceeding 1.5 degrees means that the average temperature over the past 30 years surpasses +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900).
In recent years, some months have repeatedly exceeded this level of global warming. In 2023, individual days even surpassed 2°C. However, these are temporary fluctuations and do not represent a long-term trend.
Why Is the 1.5°C Threshold Important?
The 1.5°C threshold is not arbitrary, nor is the Paris Agreement’s secondary target of 2°C. Climate science estimates that keeping warming within 1.5°C will help avoid the worst impacts of climate change, making it easier to manage consequences for human life and ecosystems.
“Adaptation will be less challenging. Our world will suffer fewer and less severe impacts from extreme weather events,” summarized a 2018 IPCC report, which explored the consequences of exceeding 1.5°C.
When Will We Truly Exceed 1.5 Degrees?
According to Copernicus, based on global warming levels as of October 2024, we will exceed 1.5°C as a 30-year average by June 2030.
This moment is approaching rapidly:
- January 2024 projection: June 2031.
- December 2018 (IPCC report): April 2035.
- Paris Agreement signing (2015): March 2042.
When the Paris Agreement was signed, surpassing 1.5°C seemed distant—27 years away. Today, it’s just five and a half years on the horizon.
Global Warming 2024: November Data
November 2024 was the second-warmest November on record, according to the historical series compiled by Copernicus, which dates back to the 1940s. Global warming for the month reached +0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average, equivalent to +1.62°C compared to the pre-industrial period.
Last month was also the 16th month out of the last 17 in which the global temperature anomaly exceeded 1.5 degrees.
As of now, the deviation from the average for the first 11 months of 2024 stands at +1.61°C, a significant 0.14°C higher than the same period last year. For now, 2023 holds the record for the warmest year, with an anomaly of +1.48°C.
