According to the UK’s MET Office, 2025 is projected to be among the three hottest years on record, following closely behind 2024 and 2023, with a global warming increase of +1.41°C
2024: The Hottest Year in History
The year 2024 is on track to officially claim the title of the hottest year ever recorded, breaking the record set just one year earlier in 2023. During that time, global temperatures rose to 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This figure placed the planet alarmingly close to the 1.5°C threshold, the most ambitious target outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement.
However, 2024 is expected to surpass that boundary significantly. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service estimates the year will conclude with a global temperature anomaly of approximately +1.6°C, cementing it as a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change.
As we prepare to close the chapter on this record-breaking year, attention turns to 2025 and the next steps in addressing the accelerating pace of global warming.
2025: One of the Top Three Hottest Years Ever
Projections from the UK’s MET Office suggest that 2025 will be one of the three hottest years on record, trailing only 2024 and 2023. The average global temperature in 2025 is expected to range between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of +1.41°C.
Adam Scaife of the MET Office notes an intriguing dynamic at play:
“It’s interesting that the projected warm global temperatures for 2025 are occurring despite the Pacific transitioning into a La Niña phase, which typically brings slightly cooler conditions.”
Nick Dunstone, a fellow researcher at the MET Office, emphasizes the importance of this milestone:
“A year ago, our predictions for 2024 highlighted the first likelihood of exceeding 1.5°C. While this seems to have occurred, it’s crucial to recognize that a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold does not constitute a violation of the Paris Agreement. However, the first year above 1.5°C undoubtedly marks a significant turning point in climate history.”
It’s worth noting that the Paris Agreement defines exceeding 1.5°C as a 30-year average rather than a single-year anomaly.
What Caused the Sudden Spike in Global Warming in 2024?
While 2025 may not set a new absolute record, it will continue the disturbing trend of high global temperatures. This follows an unprecedented streak of monthly records that have persisted for over 16 months.
This streak has been driven by a particularly strong El Niño event and other factors that remain only partially understood by the scientific community. The prevailing theory attributes this unexpected surge in global warming to human activities rather than natural phenomena.
Specifically, a reduction in ship pollution may have contributed to the rise. Fewer aerosols—tiny particles in the atmosphere—are now available to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. As a result, more solar energy is being absorbed by the atmosphere and oceans, exacerbating global warming.
This uncertainty surrounding these factors further complicates predictions for global warming in 2025.
