Green deal objectives: EU falters as only 8 of 28 indicators are on track, risking failure by 2030.
According to the European Environment Agency’s second monitoring report on Europe’s green transition plan, the EU is on course to meet only a fraction of its ambitious targets. Out of 28 key indicators tracking the continent’s progress, just eight are either on track or likely to achieve their set goals. Without decisive action, many green deal objectives for 2030 remain at risk.
Priorities for a sustainable future
Greater investments in green innovation, systemic changes in energy, industry, and transportation, and a substantial reduction in resource consumption top Europe’s agenda. The report warns that if more determined actions are not taken, many of the 2030 targets could be missed.
“The report is a stark reminder of the urgency to accelerate policy measures on the ground. To achieve our goals, we need a shift in mindset and radical change,” said Jessika Roswall, the EU commissioner for environment.
“It is clear once again that we must intensify our efforts to reach net-zero emissions. Although we have made good progress—particularly in cutting emissions and promoting green finance—there is still a long way to go, and there is no room for complacency. Every sector must do its part,” stressed Wopke Hoekstra, the EU commissioner for climate.
Assessing green deal objectives
The monitoring report evaluates progress across 28 indicators grouped into thematic clusters, ranging from climate change mitigation and adaptation to circular economy, resource pressure, planetary boundaries, and enabling conditions. Among these indicators:
• Only 5 are “on track” – current policies suggest these targets will be met by 2030.
• Just 3 are “likely on track” – these objectives are probably attainable.
• A concerning 16, more than half, are “likely off track” – meaning that even with approved policies, these goals are unlikely to be achieved.
• 4 indicators are completely “off track”.
Greenhouse gas emissions
European greenhouse gas emissions appear to be moving in the right direction. By the end of 2023, emissions had dropped by 37% compared to 1990 levels, although the green deal target calls for a 55% reduction. The gap is nearly closed: the Fit for 55 package is expected to bring a 49% reduction by 2030, and updates to national integrated climate and energy plans should introduce further measures to bridge the remaining difference.
Indicators off track
LULUCF. The report highlights that, in the realm of land use, land-use change, and forestry, there has been no expansion in carbon absorption capacity. Projections indicate a reduction of 224 to 240 MtCO₂eq by 2030—falling short of the target of 310 MtCO₂eq. Contributing factors include aging forests, increased deforestation, and damages from fires and pests. Addressing this shortfall will require additional reforestation, reduced timber extraction, and peatland restoration.
Economic losses from climate events
Rising economic losses are a significant concern, with 43.9 billion euros lost in 2023 alone due to more frequent and intense extreme weather events and vulnerable, non–climate-resilient infrastructure. This indicator underscores the lack of effective adaptation plans and adequate investments in urban and agricultural resilience.
Resource consumption and waste production
There has been no significant decline in resource consumption, which continues to increase in step with economic growth.
Declining biodiversity
The report indicates that the current policies make it nearly impossible to meet biodiversity targets. Intensive agriculture, deforestation, and urbanization remain critical challenges. It suggests a rigorous implementation of the nature restoration regulation and a revision of the common agricultural policy to provide more ecologically friendly incentives—although the EU commission appears to be heading in a different direction.
Fossil fuel subsidies
On this front, the EU is completely off track. Subsidies have grown without any concrete plans for their elimination.
