Will America First policies reshape American eating habits? If fully implemented, they could lead to rising prices for everyday goods, hitting lower-income families the hardest. The avocado trade offers a revealing example.
How America First could affect food prices and household budgets
Is America First a winning strategy for agriculture? What impact would its most extreme policies have on American dinner tables and wallets?
This analysis does not take a political stance on the administration’s policies. Instead, it provides a factual look at the potential consequences of certain trade decisions on the U.S. food industry.
Can the U.S. sustain itself without food imports?
Can the United States truly produce everything it needs to feed its population? The short answer is no—just as no other country can.
When the prospect of tariffs on key trading partners first emerged, concerns spread quickly among American consumers accustomed to a steady supply of food from around the world.
Take guacamole, for instance. The beloved avocado-based dip has Aztec origins but is now a staple at American cookouts, accompanying classic dishes like grilled steaks.
America’s avocado obsession
Global avocado production has more than tripled since 2000, and U.S. consumption has grown sixfold in the past two decades.
Domestically, 88% of avocados are grown in California, 12% in Florida, and less than 1% in Hawaii.
However, local production has not kept pace with demand. While the U.S. was self-sufficient in the 1980s, it now relies on imports for 90% of its avocado supply. Several challenges contribute to this dependence:
- Extreme weather events (droughts, wildfires, hurricanes)
- Plant diseases
- Labor shortages (largely affecting immigrant workers, whose numbers are declining due to policy shifts)
- Rising water costs and scarcity (avocado farming is water-intensive)
- Urban expansion reducing farmland
- Higher production costs
The economic reality of food and tariffs
Experts tracking the intersection of economics and food warn that tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports would drive up prices for avocados and tomatoes—two of America’s most consumed fresh foods.
For now, a temporary 30-day truce is in place. But what happens next? The administration has signaled its willingness to impose tariffs across the board, unless persuaded otherwise.
The assumption behind America First is that Americans prefer to eat exclusively homegrown food, and that prioritizing local, seasonal products would benefit small farmers.
In Italy, a similar approach exists—supporting local agriculture—but without imposing tariffs or restricting trade. Italy values its globally renowned food exports and maintains open markets, recognizing the economic significance of its agricultural sector.
U.S. agricultural production: strengths and gaps
The U.S. excels in producing grains, oils, sweeteners, and meat but falls short in fresh produce and legumes. In 2022:
- 69% of vegetables and 51% of fresh fruit consumed in the U.S. came from Mexico
- Canada supplied 2% of vegetables and 20% of fresh fruit
- Canada also exports canola oil, grains, beef, and pork to the U.S.
In 2023, U.S. agricultural imports exceeded exports, resulting in a trade deficit (U.S. Department of Agriculture data).
If tariffs are enacted, price hikes won’t just affect avocados—a luxury item for some—but also everyday essentials like oranges, asparagus, broccoli, cauliflower, cucumbers, strawberries, bell peppers, raspberries, blueberries, green beans, tomatoes, and a wide range of processed and staple foods.
A shift in American eating habits?
America First operates on the belief that the U.S. can be fully self-sufficient in agriculture. The reality is different. Many staple foods consumed daily in the U.S. originate from imports.
Would restricting these imports impact healthy eating? Likely, yes.
But the bigger issue may be the forced shift in American eating habits. The U.S. food market is built on the expectation of year-round availability of all products. Adapting to a seasonal, domestic-only supply would require a major cultural shift.
The social impact of America First on food access
“Make America Healthy Again,” as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggests? Should policy decisions be driven by ideology or science?
A healthy diet doesn’t mean replacing vegetable oils with lard (excessive animal fat consumption is linked to health risks) or consuming raw milk (which carries the dangers of E. coli, salmonella, listeria, and, more recently, avian flu in dairy cows).
The real concern is the social impact. A full-scale trade war would hit lower-income communities the hardest.
Wealthier households could absorb the higher costs, but for many Americans, price spikes would make basic foods – fruits and vegetables – unaffordable.
