An analysis by Bloomberg estimates that the number of countries that broke the 5% EV threshold on total new registrations rose from 19 in 2022 to 31 in 2023. The data shows that on average, over this threshold, it reaches 25% in the space of 4 years. Italy finally reached 5.4% in the last quarter of 2023
Above the 5% threshold, mass adoption of EVs usually takes place
In 2023, the number of countries that have exceeded the threshold of 5% of electric cars, out of the total of new vehicles registered, rose to 31. Beyond this percentage, mechanisms are triggered whereby the adoption of EV soars and this technology quickly becomes cheaper than diesel and gasoline cars. According to an analysis by Bloomberg.
In 2022, countries above the 5% threshold of newly registered electric cars were just 19. According to the penetration curves of EVs in these countries, it is usually possible to pass in just 4 years from 5 to 25% of the total sales of electric cars, and from 5 to 15% in 3 years. In practice, 5% is the limit beyond which mass adoption takes place.
Why? The penetration curve of this – and other technologies takes the form of an S. At first the numbers remain low and the annual growth rate is minimal. Factors such as costs, the lack of adequate infrastructure and even consumer scepticism weigh – which in the case of electric cars is also fuelled by a whirlwind of conspiracy theories without any foundation.
One of the most widespread hoaxes, for example, is that EVs would actually pollute more than diesel and petrol vehicles, but an analysis of the entire life cycle of ICE and EV shows that emissions are up to 70% less, even counting the contribution of battery production.
“Once enough sales happen, you have a virtuous circle,” explains Corey Cantor, BloombergNEF’s electric vehicle analyst. “More electric vehicles mean that more people see them as mainstream, car manufacturers are more willing to invest in the market and the charging infrastructure expands along a good path”.
Who passed the threshold of 5% of electric cars in 2023
Last year, states in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe were among the countries that exceeded the 5% threshold of electric cars. Like Thailand, which exceeded the limit in the first quarter of the year reaching 13% of the last quarter of 2023. Or Turkey, which, thanks to the introduction of a full electric model on the market by Togg, a Turkish car company, became at the end of the year the 4th largest EV market in Europe. Just over the threshold was finally placed also Italy, which in the last quarter of 2023 reached 5.4% of sales of EV on the total of new registrations.
