Emissions, energy consumption, renewables, and retrofitting investments—every key indicator is off track. The BPIE report sounds the alarm.
Italy’s building sector is not on course to meet its climate targets. Four key indicators of building decarbonization are lagging behind the 2030 benchmarks. Progress is deemed “insufficient,” and the roadmap itself has a structural flaw—most efforts are deferred until after 2030.
This is the assessment from BPIE (Buildings Performance Institute Europe) in the first edition of the Italian Buildings Climate Tracker. Despite record investments, emissions and energy consumption are not declining at the pace required by international agreements.
Building decarbonization: all indicators are off track
The BPIE study evaluates the progress of Italy’s real estate sector through a composite index that assesses:
- CO₂ emissions
- Energy consumption
- Share of renewables
- Retrofitting investments
Using 2015 as the baseline year, Italy’s performance so far is as follows:
- CO₂ emissions: -12.4% (vs. -14.3% target by 2022)
- Final energy consumption: -3% (vs. -8.1% target)
- Renewables share: +1.9% (vs. +9.3% expected)
- Retrofitting investments: $90 billion (€84.5B) vs. $48 billion (€45B) projected—but with limited tangible results
The biggest concern is the timeline of emissions cuts: 69% of the required reductions have been postponed to the 2030-2050 period.
Let’s break down Italy’s building decarbonization performance based on the report’s findings.
Emissions: a slow decline isn’t enough
Emissions from residential and commercial buildings have dropped only 12.4% since 2015, falling short of the 14.3% target. This gap translates into an extra 1.4 million tons of CO₂ released into the atmosphere.
- Residential buildings show better performance (-16% since 2015)
- Commercial buildings, however, have increased emissions by 5%
The main culprit? Gas dependency—natural gas still accounts for 48.2% of home heating.
Energy consumption: efficiency efforts are too slow
Final energy consumption in buildings has declined by just 3%, far below the 8.1% goal. At this pace, achieving carbon neutrality would take 70 years.
The commercial sector is particularly concerning:
- +9% increase in energy use since 2015
- +19% rise in electricity demand for cooling systems
Despite technological improvements, rising temperatures and the growing adoption of air conditioning systems are erasing efficiency gains.
Renewables: sluggish energy transition
The renewable energy share in buildings is increasing six times slower than required:
- Heating and cooling: 22.3% renewables (only +2.4% since 2015)
- Electricity: 35.1% from clean sources (just +4.3%)
Italy remains locked into fossil fuel infrastructure, with gas covering nearly half of residential thermal consumption. To meet 2030 goals, the country needs a 15-fold acceleration in solar thermal and geothermal installations.
Superbonus: a financial success with mixed results
Thanks to the Superbonus tax incentive, retrofitting investments exceeded expectations:
- $90 billion (€84.5B) spent, nearly double the projected $48 billion (€45B)
- A peak of $23 billion (€22B) per year in 2021-2022, 7-15 times pre-2020 levels
However, these investments haven’t delivered proportional energy efficiency gains. According to BPIE, the reasons include:
- Lack of minimum performance requirements for incentives
- No prioritization of the most energy-inefficient buildings
- Insufficient monitoring of actual efficiency improvements
How can Italy recover lost ground in building decarbonization?
The report outlines four critical priorities:
- Accelerate pre-2030 emissions cuts to avoid exponential costs later
- Phase out gas in favor of heat pumps and district heating
- Direct investments toward high-emission buildings
- Integrate climate policies with social measures to tackle energy poverty
Additionally, the study highlights the urgent need to improve Italy’s energy certification system (APE): currently, 47% of certificates are issued due to legal obligations, rather than actual energy efficiency upgrades.
