Irena updates estimates on the clean energy trajectory toward the goals set for COP28. Only solar energy is on track
Global investments in new renewable capacity must immediately triple from $570 billion to $1.5 trillion per year through 2030. Otherwise, we will not be able to meet the renewable energy targets set at COP28 to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold. Today, the gap left by national renewable energy targets is still enormous: 3.8 TW by the end of the decade, which is 34% of the new capacity that needs to be installed over the next seven years.
This stark reality check comes after—and despite—the boom in clean energy in recent years, just months ahead of the renewal of climate goals that states must submit to the UN, with the next round expected by February 2025. To further bend the renewable energy curve upward, these plans require more political ambition and the right amount of investments. This is emphasized in the latest report from Irena, the International Renewable Energy Agency.
Currently, national plans would only be able to ensure about half of the necessary new power growth needed to achieve the goal of tripling renewables by 2030. According to the Agency’s calculations, current policies would lead to a maximum increase in installed capacity of 3.5 TW, cumulatively reaching 7.4 TW. However, to comply with the Paris Agreement, 11.2 TW of renewables will be needed by the end of the decade. In practice, this means installing just over 1 TW per year (1,044 GW, to be precise) between 2024 and 2030, which corresponds to an annual compound growth rate of 16.4%.
Solar energy is the only source whose growth rate is in line with the Paris Agreement. According to Irena, to meet the 2030 goals, annual installed capacity must increase for:
- Onshore wind: 3 times
- Offshore wind: 6 times
- Bioenergy: 6 times
- Geothermal: 35 times
Global Renewable Investments: $31.5 Trillion by 2030
Adding together every source and also including grids, flexibility, and efficiency, global investments in renewables are expected to reach $31.5 trillion by 2030. Once again, solar energy is on the right track with $397 billion per year. All other sectors are falling short of the necessary investments. Particular attention is needed for energy efficiency investments, which must increase sevenfold. In 2023, they totaled $323 billion, but they need to rise to $2.2 trillion annually.
