Only governance, clean technologies and electricity are making significant improvements and are on the right track to net zero emissions by 2050. Mobility, construction, agriculture, industrial emissions are stalling or going in the wrong direction. The 360° evaluation of the European Climate Neutrality Observatory
2/3 of indicators improve, many only in a limited way
The EU must double its climate investment and reverse its course on carbon removals. Europe’s ecological transition is going in the wrong direction in these areas. Meanwhile, progress is “too slow” in agriculture, buildings, industry, mobility, and lifestyles. It is better on the front of governance for the transition, and the trajectory regarding clean technologies and electricity is correct.
Green transition of Europe, the pages of ECNO
It is an assessment with more shadows than lights that emerges from the ECNO report on the European path towards the zero emissions target by 2050. The European Climate Neutrality Observatory – an independent initiative that monitors progress in Europe’s green transition from mid-2023 – talks about “promising signs of progress” in some of the indicators on the EU’s road to climate neutrality, both in benchmarks and policies adopted.
But the pace of the transition “must accelerate” because today’s progress “is generally still too slow“. Of the 13 indicators, 10 have improved – some in a minimal way – while 3 have gone backwards.
Let us examine the evaluation of ECNO in detail. Download the report here.
Governance
The EU and the Seventy-seven have confirmed, also in the last year, that they are careful to equip themselves with structures, procedures and mechanisms at various levels that can support Europe’s ecological transition. More than positive points are the adoption of climate legislation and the creation of scientific advisory bodies with directive tasks, as well as the strategic planning on climate issues that inherit every other policy area more and more.
However, the report points out that there are still shortcomings. Including:
- inadequate compliance with EU planning and reporting requirements, both in terms of substance and timeliness
- Under-used and undeveloped long-term strategies
- limitations in the adoption of robust tools for monitoring progress
- lack of transparency on the effectiveness of participation in climate policy formulation.
Cleantech and electricity
More than a positive picture is also on the front of clean technologies. Public funding for research and development is taking foot, while policies approved over the past year are making supply chains more resilient (con il Green Deal Industrial Plan, il Net Zero Industry Act e il Critical Raw Materials Act).
The EU’s pace of decarbonising the electricity mix is still too slow, but several promising signals exist. These include the growth rate of renewables, which “may soon begin to develop at the right pace,” and the trajectory of the ETS’s zero carbon credits by 2040.
Among the criticisms, the report notes:
- the reduction in emissions from electricity generation, which must run 1.2 times faster
- the reduction of the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix today to -2.2% annually, which must go 1.8 times faster
- the growth of renewable electricity, which must accelerate by 1.4 times
- increased electrical storage capacity (you need to run 2.5 times faster)
- and the share of electricity in final energy consumption, where the EU must accelerate by 56 times the current rates
Industry and agriculture
Europe begins to stumble on the path of transition when we come to the chapter on industry and agriculture. Brussels is out of track in both areas, although there are some improvements compared to last year. Industrial emissions are falling faster, and energy efficiency is increasing. In agriculture, the rejection is more pronounced. Good on cutting chemical fertilisers, bad on all other fronts. The policies related to the Farm to Fork strategy, the ECNO report points out, have been frozen or have questionable effectiveness. The dismantling of the green ambition of the CAP, with the recent simplifications, is going in the wrong direction.
Buildings and mobility
It is even more painful when it comes to decarbonising buildings and transport. There are “limited changes” in both sectors. For the construction industry, a crucial node is the re-qualification rate, which is far too low, while mobility is too slow in the spread of zero-emission vehicles. “The data also show that road transport is even increasing, which means movement in the wrong direction,” the document says.
The three factors that enable Europe’s ecological transition identified by ECNO are very bad for mobility, especially on the modal shift, where the four indicators (the share of passengers and goods in rubber and rail transport) all go in the wrong direction. While the growth of the share of EVs in the total fleet must accelerate by 8.4 times, the penetration of zero-emission heavy vehicles must grow at a rate even 444 times greater than today.
Finance and carbon removals
The lowest ratings on the ECNO page are for finance and carbon removals. On transition, financing improvements are “limited”, and there have been deteriorations that “put further progress in other areas at risk“. For example, fossil fuel subsidies have increased, and a “substantial investment gap” persists despite the various EU programmes designed to stimulate public and private funding. In CO2 removals, the trend shows that natural carbon sink continues to decrease, even though the decline is slowing down.
