Wood Mackenzie’s estimates on horizon 2033: PV will grow by 4 times, storage by more than 6 times, while wind will increase the annual rate by 2.3 times
By 2033, the growth of the installed capacity of renewables will lead to 8 TW globally
After the record growth of renewable sources in 2023, between 2024 and 2033, solar and wind power will grow by more than 5.4 TW, bringing the total global cumulative to 8 TW. The growth of the installed capacity of renewables will proceed at the rate of 500 GW this year, then settle on an average of 560 GW annually in the next decade. The largest share will be covered by photovoltaics, with 3.8 TW (about 70%) versus 1.4 TW of wind power. China alone contributes two-thirds of global growth. During the same period, the energy storage capacity (excluding pumped hydroelectric) will increase by more than 600%. These are the latest estimates released by Wood Mackenzie.
Increased installed capacity of renewables: photovoltaic quadrupled in 10 years
Data predict a very strong growth of photovoltaics. Solar energy is expected to multiply the global installed capacity of PV by four times today’s levels. This trend is driven by some factors, such as the “extremely low” module prices intensifying the rate of solar installations in Europe and China. For Wood Mackenzie, “they will continue to do so in the short term.”
But there are some obstacles to consider. “Network constraints and the return to lower energy prices and consequently lower capture rates will impact markets and other regions,” said Juan Monge, an analyst at the consulting firm. Maximize or not the growth of the installed capacity of renewables, adds the report, will depend on further technological developments: above all, the expansion of network infrastructures and the encouragement of flexibility solutions, but also the curve of electrification of transport and heating.
On wind, bottlenecks will crush growth until at least 2026, with critical issues in authorisations, network access, financing, and supply chain availability. In any case, the report argues that despite China’s contribution, the installed wind power capacity will grow on average 85 GW per year in the rest of the world, while in the last decade, it has not gone beyond 37 GW. Offshore wind power will cover nearly half of the total annual (39 GW).
