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State of the Nuclear Industry: How Renewables Are Overtaking Nuclear Power

State of the Nuclear Industry: How Renewables Are Overtaking Nuclear Power.

What does the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024 reveal?

“Nuclear energy is facing an increasing competitive threat from renewable energy, with the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for both wind and utility-scale solar now well below that of new reactors.” This is reported by the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024, the annual report on the state of the nuclear industry, authored by analyst Mycle Schneider along with a large group of international experts. The document offers a vivid overview of the sector, outlining key trends in terms of technologies, production, and new capacity, both globally and nationally.

Nuclear Energy vs Renewable Energy

This edition includes a special chapter dedicated to comparing nuclear power and renewable energy sources. What emerges from the report is not new. According to the authors, today, green energy consistently surpasses nuclear power in terms of costs and speed of implementation. “And they are therefore preferred to nuclear energy in most countries.”

This also means renewables are receiving greater financial attention, with investment volumes continuously growing. So much so that the installed capacity of renewables now dwarfs that of nuclear reactors. The global solar park alone exceeds the operating nuclear capacity by about four times.

But let’s dive into the details of the data.

Renewable Capacity vs Nuclear Capacity

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024 highlights how the renewable energy sector has continued to grow steadily in recent years. In 2023, total renewable energy reached 3.9 TW of installed capacity (with 1.4 TW from solar alone), accounting for 43% of global electricity capacity. This growth is primarily driven by the sharp increase in wind and solar, with nearly 460 GW of new additions. In contrast, operational nuclear capacity has remained relatively stable over the same period, increasing insignificantly from 350 GW to 364 GW.

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

The trend is the opposite regarding the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). From 2009 to 2024, the average LCOE for utility-scale solar dropped from $359 to $61 per MWh, while onshore wind fell from $135 to $50 per MWh. In contrast, nuclear’s LCOE rose from $123 to $182 per MWh during the same period, making it “the most expensive utility-scale energy source.”

Investment Volumes

Financial results speak for themselves: renewables continue to attract greater investments. In 2023, new investments in green energy reached $623 billion, while nuclear energy investments amounted to about $32.7 billion. Last year was also notable for another reason: “For decades, investments in renewable energy have exceeded those in nuclear,” the authors write. “However, 2023 was significant not only because this trend accelerated but also because new funding for energy storage surpassed that for nuclear.

Capacity Factors

Of course, the capacity factor gap remains. Renewable technologies like hydropower and geothermal, with global weighted average capacity factors of 45% and 75%, respectively, can approach the values seen in fossil and nuclear generation, which have global averages of 48% and 81%, respectively. Wind turbines and solar panels find competition much harder, although the capacity factor for new offshore wind in Europe is now above 50%.

The numbers lead to an important reflection: “Given the capacity factor differences, nuclear advocates argue that wind and solar are not direct competitors to nuclear power. They consider LCOE a misleading metric for market competitiveness and suggest that high costs based on LCOE should not influence the increasing subsidies for all parts of the nuclear supply chain,” the document states.

However, while generation profiles differ, the advantages of LCOE, shorter and more predictable project completion times, and rapidly growing capacity have led to significant investments and innovations to address intermittency challenges. Moreover, according to experts, “energy reliability should be evaluated at the grid level, not from a single generation point.” Additionally, solutions are progressively increasing to align energy demand with supply and improve system flexibility.

Read the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024 here.

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