COP28 Targets Are “Within Reach”
The goal set at COP28 in Dubai to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030 is “within reach.” However, coordinated global efforts are needed to achieve it. The priorities? Electrical grids, storage, and regulatory simplifications. Specifically:
- Faster but responsible authorization procedures.
- The construction or modernization of over 25 million kilometers of electrical grids by 2030.
- Increasing global energy storage capacity to 1,500 GW by 2030.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) supports this in the report “From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to Implement the COP28 Energy Goals,“ in which the agency, led by Fatih Birol, assesses the global efforts to accelerate renewable energy development one year after the decision to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030 made during the climate summit in the UAE.
Priorities for Tripling Renewables and Doubling Energy Efficiency
According to the IEA, we are on the right track to achieve 75% of the COP28 targets with current policies. The main bottlenecks must be addressed to bridge the gap to the targets. What are they?
On the electricity grid front, the agency cites the most urgent critical issues to be tackled:
- The slowness in issuing permits for new grid expansions.
- The lack of investments in many grid companies (often state-owned) in emerging markets and developing economies.
- Old and obsolete electrical grids in advanced economies.
Regarding storage, tripling renewables and doubling efficiency requires an increase in storage capacity of nearly 15 times the current levels. This means installing 1,500 new GW of energy storage by 2030, of which 1,200 GW would be battery storage.
On the energy efficiency front, the IEA identifies priorities that mainly involve developing a more granular and country-specific approach to achieve the goal:
- Advanced economies should focus primarily on electrification, “as doubling efficiency requires increasing the share of electricity in global energy consumption to about 30% by 2030,” particularly emphasizing electric vehicles and heat pumps.
- Emerging economies should aim for stricter efficiency standards, especially for cooling.
All of this must translate into specific targets to be included in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for climate change mitigation and adaptation. NDCs cover at least a five-year horizon and must be submitted by all countries by February 2025. According to the IEA, overall, the NDCs should enable a reduction in energy-related emissions of over 60% by 2035.
Specifically, the overall targets for different categories of states should aim for at least:
- For advanced economies and high-income countries, a reduction in emissions of 60-80%.
- For emerging economies (including China), cuts of 35-65%.
- For developing economies, reductions between 5 and 50%.