Renewables 2024 Report: IEA Forecasts for Renewable Energy Growth
The year 2023 concluded with 510 GW of new renewable capacity installed globally. This trend is expected to continue, with an additional 5,500 GW of renewable energy plants projected to be operational by the decade’s end. This is the main scenario outlined in the International Energy Agency‘s (IEA) Renewables 2024 Report, presented this morning via live streaming. The report is the agency’s key annual publication on the sector, featuring the latest forecasts and analyses in the field of renewable energy sources (RES), based on current or planned policies and market developments.
The report outlines four scenarios:
- A 2030 scenario based on current national ambitions, calibrated on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) already submitted by countries.
- A main 2030 scenario, drafted based on current market conditions.
- An accelerated growth scenario for 2030, which anticipates a further increase in national ambitions.
- A scenario for tripling renewables by 2030, detailing the efforts needed to triple 2023’s green energy capacity by the end of this decade.
The Main Scenario for Renewables 2024-2030
We will focus on the main scenario, which is currently the most likely and responsible for the over 5,500 GW of new capacity mentioned earlier. In this context, the IEA estimates that solar and wind power will dominate, accounting for 95% of the total growth in the period from 2024 to 2030.
For precision, the number one driver will be solar energy, which alone is expected to provide 80% of the new capacity additions globally between now and the end of the decade. The strong trend in photovoltaics has already been emerging in recent years, but according to the Renewables 2024 Report, it is set to explode. The reasons for this include declining solar energy costs, shorter permitting times for certain installations, and increasing social acceptance. The report estimates that in the main scenario, there will be 2,550 GW of new utility-scale solar installations and over 1,659 GW of distributed generation from 2024 to 2030.
While wind energy may not perform as well, it appears to be poised to overcome current challenges for new structural growth.
“Despite recent macroeconomic challenges and supply chain issues, the sector is expected to recover,” writes the IEA. “Policy changes regarding auction design, permitting, and grid connection in Europe, the United States, India, and other emerging and developing economies are expected to improve the bankability of projects and help wind energy recover from recent financial difficulties.”
The main scenario of the report estimates new operational wind capacity of 1,036 GW added between 2024 and 2030.
In contrast, hydroelectric capacity growth is expected to remain stable, while declines are anticipated for bioenergy, geothermal energy, concentrating solar power, and ocean energy “due to a lack of political support.”
Global Renewable Capacity: Benefits and Challenges
The effects of the photovoltaic boom and the new wind increases will be especially felt in the electricity mix: in the main scenario, renewable energy sources will account for nearly half of global electricity production by 2030, with solar photovoltaic set to become the largest renewable energy source overall.
The Other Side of the Coin
On the flip side, the curtailment of renewable energy sources (RES) is progressively increasing, meaning the deliberate reduction of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation at certain times of the day to balance supply and demand or due to transmission constraints.
“In countries where investments in the grid and system integration measures do not keep pace with rapid deployment, curtailment could become an increasing challenge,” states the Renewables 2024 Report. “In Chile, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, for example, reductions in wind and solar PV energy have recently reached between 5% and 15%.”
There is also a warning regarding investments in grid infrastructure. Even in the main scenario, these appear to be lagging behind. Specifically, 1,650 GW of renewable capacity is currently in advanced development and awaiting grid connection—150 GW more than last year.
Renewables 2024 Report: The Hydrogen Chapter
While not part of renewable energy sources, green hydrogen plays a prominent role in the transition and is closely monitored. According to the Agency, this vector will remain “a negligible driver for the growth of new renewable capacity.”
Despite new planned projects, an increasing number of patents, and the financial and political support the sector is receiving, green hydrogen is expected to account for only 4% of total hydrogen production by 2030. The main issue? Insufficient demand. However, global installed electrolyzer capacity is projected to increase fiftyfold by the same date.
Who Is Building the Most New Renewable Capacity Worldwide?
China continues to lead the class and is expected to maintain its position as the world leader in renewable energy, accounting for 60% of global RES capacity expansion by 2030. In parallel, the Renewables 2024 Report forecasts that the European Union and the United States will double their new renewable capacity development pace, while India will experience the fastest growth rate among major economies.
This report shows that the growth of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, will transform electricity systems worldwide in this decade,” commented IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “From now until 2030, the world is on track to add more than 5,500 gigawatts of renewables […] roughly equal to the current energy capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States combined”.