Supply is growing while panel prices are falling: the market is widening but for the industry it will not be an easy time. Italy fourth country in Europe for new installed capacity
BNEF’s 2024 global photovoltaic market outlook
(sustainabilityenvironment.com) – The 2024 photovoltaic will mark a new record globally. According to the 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook processed by BloombergNEF, this year the compartment has the credentials to install over 520 GW of new annual capacity. And in a more optimistic scenario, the new gigawatts could even be 655. By comparison, 2023 growth – which was already a record in itself – was about 444 GW.
The solar race, therefore, does not stop. On the contrary, under the pressure of an increase in supply that has caused prices to fall throughout the supply chain, it continues straight but without haste, with a rate of 29% over the previous year.
Several countries will contribute to the final result, primarily China. The People’s Republic would have to install more than 313 GW on its own, maintaining its leading role in the class. A comparison with other countries is useless, but the BNEF report indicates that this year there will be 37 markets in the world to add 1 GW and more new power. Among these also appears Italy with a figure for photovoltaic 2024 of over 5 GW, in fourth place in the European ranking after Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. For the national solar is the third year in a row of sustained growth and, despite the expected value of BloombergNEF is still far from the trends imagined in the Italian PNIEC, the look at 2030 is hopeful. The report estimates that Italy can touch its target photovoltaic end of the decade, winning the European podium.
Prices of solar silicon and photovoltaic modules
But if on the plant side, the situation looks rosy, the manufacturing industry is not so. According to analysts, leading polycrystalline silicon suppliers – whose average price collapsed in 2023 to just $8.1/kg – could produce enough semiconductors to produce 1.1 TW of modules this year. But many realities in China, where they expect a new drop in prices, have now stopped production or are ready to do so.
Several problems can also be seen for cell and module manufacturers. “Governments continue to plan support for local producers and the creation of local solar industries, but the intense cost pressure will make businesses wary of investing unless the incentives are extremely generous”, writes analyst Jenny Chase on the BNEF blog. “Many announced plans for factories in Europe, the United States and other countries will be canceled“. For 2024 photovoltaic modules the ratio estimates an average price of 0.11$/W.
