Compared to the pre-industrial era, October 2024 was 1.65°C above average. This year will almost certainly be hotter than 2023, with at least +1.55°C. Data and projections from Copernicus
It is now ‘virtually certain’ that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time this year. To avoid this global warming record in 2024, both November and December would need to close with zero temperature anomaly—something that has never happened before. This was announced by Copernicus, the European satellite monitoring system.
The second warmest October on record
The global average temperature for October was 15.25°C, marking a pronounced thermal anomaly. Compared to the past 30 years (1991–2020), October was 0.8°C warmer than normal. Relative to the pre-industrial era, October 2024 was 1.65°C above average.
Only October 2023 recorded higher values in the entire Copernicus historical series, closing at +1.7°C, with the El Niño effect further amplifying the anomaly.
Copernicus: 2024 set to be a record year for global warming.
With October, 15 of the past 16 months have been at least 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average, conventionally defined as the average global temperature from 1850–1900.
The 12-month rolling average (from November 2023 to October 2024) places global warming at +1.62°C (or +0.74°C above the 1991–2020 period). Meanwhile, the average for 2024, from January to October, has reached +1.59°C (+0.71°C above the 1991–2020 baseline). This is the highest value Copernicus has ever recorded for the first 10 months of a year, a full 0.16°C above 2023.
‘It is now practically certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would need to drop nearly to zero for 2024 not to be the hottest year,’ explains the EU satellite service. Similarly, it is ‘virtually certain’ that the average temperature anomaly for 2024 will exceed 1.55°C.
Europe’s Climate in October 2024
In Europe, October 2024 was 1.23°C above the 30-year average, making it the 5th warmest October in Copernicus’ records, with October 2022 holding the top spot (+1.92°C).
Oceans and Ice
The global warming record was nearly matched for ocean surface temperatures, as October 2024 closed with an average of 20.68°C—the second highest on record, just a tenth of a degree below October 2023.
In the equatorial and central Pacific, temperatures fell below average, signaling a shift to La Niña after a strong 2023 influenced by its “warm” counterpart, El Niño. Nonetheless, marked positive anomalies were recorded across most other regions.
In the Arctic, October saw the 4th lowest sea ice extent on record, 19% below the average, with the largest deficits along the ice sheet’s edges, particularly in the Barents Sea. Conditions were even more severe in the Antarctic, where ice was 8% below average, marking the 2nd worst October on record (after October 2023).
