A PNAS study provides the first accurate estimate of the specific impact of the various anthropological disturbance factors on CO2 flows. Deforestation is responsible for 17% of emissions, while logging, fires and other natural factors related to climate change weigh for 83%
For some years, the Amazon forest has emitted more CO2 than it has absorbed
In 2023, the Amazon’s deforestation rate fell by 50% compared to the previous year thanks to policies put in place by the new president, Lula. By June of this year, deforestation had fallen by 40% by 2023. As positive as it may be, it will not be enough to stop the progressive collapse of the Amazon forest, which has begun to emit more CO2 than it can absorb in recent years. Anthropological activities and natural phenomena contributing to its degradation are more dangerous than deforestation.
This is supported by a study conducted by a group of Brazilian and US scientists and recently published in PNAS. This is the first work to return an accurate estimate of the specific impact of the various sources of disturbance on the Amazon forest, calculated through the analysis of carbon flows with laser scanner sensors rather than simple satellite images during various campaigns between 2016 and 2018.
The area analysed covers the so-called “Arc de la deforestation”, a region affected by deforests and extends over 540 thousand km2, almost twice the size of Italy. The budget is clear: Deforestation is responsible for 17% of CO2 emissions, while the remaining 83% is attributable to other anthropogenic factors of degradation, such as logging and fires, and natural factors.
Human-induced fires, in particular, are one of the most underestimated factors so far. By analyzing CO2 emissions remotely, rather than based on examining satellite images, the study reveals that the area of the Amazon forest affected is more than twice the current estimates. At the level of CO2 flows, however, the mortality from convex storms fueled by the climate crisis is the most underestimated factor. It is estimated that the amount of emissions attributable to these events is seven times greater than previously assumed.
