Antarctic Glaciers: Insights from Dartmouth College Study
Understanding the impact of the climate crisis on the South Pole remains one of the biggest challenges in climate science. The behavior of Antarctic glaciers is far less predictable than that of the Arctic ice sheet, making it difficult to directly correlate with global warming. A new study, published in Earth’s Future and involving over 50 scientists, attempts to unravel this question by combining 16 different predictive models.
Why is predicting the behavior of Antarctic glaciers so difficult?
The South Pole has provided mixed signals about the evolution of its ice sheet. For the third consecutive year in 2024, Antarctic sea ice extent remained below 2 million km². By the end of February, 850,000 km² of ice were missing—an area nearly three times the size of Italy.
However, this is insufficient to establish a clear trend. Just a few years earlier, in 2013 and 2015, record-high ice extents were observed (data has been collected since 1979). There is a trend, albeit slightly negative: a – 1.7% decrease in ice cover per decade. Therefore, it’s not possible to conclusively link the shrinking of the South Pole to the climate crisis or global warming trends.
Antarctica’s fate from now until 2300
This uncertainty is reflected in the analysis of 16 predictive models coordinated by Dartmouth College. The study examines the behavior of Antarctic glaciers over the next 300 years, identifying two key phases with significant differences.
The first phase, from the present to 2100, shows a slow decline in the ice sheet, regardless of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. The Antarctic ice sheet continues to shrink slowly in both high and low-emission scenarios. Even in the worst-case scenario, sea levels would rise by no more than 30 centimeters by the end of the century.
The second phase, from 2100 to 2300, reveals a stark difference between emission pathways. Even in an intermediate scenario, based on current emission rates, Western Antarctica’s glaciers begin to retreat rapidly. By 2200, this could lead to a sea level rise of 1.67 meters. By 2300, some models suggest the entire ice sheet could disappear. Overall, the models project a sea level rise of 4.4 meters by 2300, potentially reaching 6.9 meters if certain ice shields collapse.
“While current carbon emissions have only a modest impact on model projections for this century, the difference between how high and low-emission scenarios contribute to sea level rise grows significantly after 2100,” explains Mathieu Morlighem, co-author of the study. “These findings confirm that reducing carbon emissions now is crucial to protect future generations.”