The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underscores that CDR technologies are essential to keeping global warming below the targets set by the Paris Agreement. By mid-century, the global capacity for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—through both nature-based and technological solutions—must reach 10 billion metric tons (GtCO2) annually, doubling again by 2100.
Currently, nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and restoring degraded carbon sinks like peatlands, account for roughly 2 GtCO2 annually. However, expanding these approaches risks conflicts with food security. Meanwhile, technological solutions contribute less than 1% of the total. The challenge: Can these immature technologies be scaled sufficiently to meet the 2050 target of 10 GtCO2?
Bezos Earth Fund’s Initiative: A Roadmap for Scaling CDR Technologies
The Bezos Earth Fund, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ environmental initiative, convened over 500 experts across the entire CDR value chain to create a comprehensive roadmap for scaling technological solutions for CO2 removal. The roadmap identifies three key phases through 2050: emergency (2024–2030), adoption (2030–2040), and expansion (2040–2050).
Phase 1: Emergency (2024–2030)
The first phase, spanning the next five years, focuses on:
- Achieving a removal capacity of 285 million metric tons (Mt) CO2 annually by 2030, compared to today’s 10,000 metric tons per year from Direct Air Capture (DAC).
- Advancing scientific research to address non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane.
Key initiatives for this phase include:
- Research & Development (R&D): Allocating $8 billion to R&D, prioritizing non-DAC technologies and greenhouse gases beyond CO2.
- Demonstration Projects: Launching 300–400 pilot projects across various geographies.
- Permitting: Establishing clear regulatory frameworks in at least 40 countries.
Phase 2: Adoption (2030–2040)
During the adoption phase, the focus shifts to integrating proven technologies into commercial markets and scaling annual removal capacity to multiple GtCO2. Key objectives include:
- Expanding demand to $40–60 billion annually.
- Driving large-scale adoption through public procurement and compliance markets.
Phase 3: Expansion (2040–2050)
The final phase aims to achieve the target of 10 GtCO2 annually by:
- Optimizing regional and global infrastructure to ensure scalability.
- Establishing a consolidated global demand through public and private procurement.
Key Enablers for Scaling CDR Technologies
To scale CDR technologies, the Bezos Earth Fund highlights three critical enablers:
- Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV): Standardized and verified MRV systems are essential to ensure removal quality. This requires significant investment in measurement technologies.
- Permitting and Regulation: Clear regulatory structures in at least 40 countries by 2030 are crucial.
- CapEx Financing: Mobilizing both public and private funds for pilot and commercial-scale projects, supported by government incentives, is key to success.