In Europe, with the current trajectory of global warming, by 2050 we will have half a percentage point less in GDP. Meanwhile, deaths at work due to thermal stress are also increasing in the Old Continent
Between productivity declines and health impacts (sometimes even drastic), extreme heat is already shaping the future of work worldwide. Not only in the hottest regions of the planet, but also in our latitudes, in the heart of Europe.
Thermal stress claims 10,000 lives annually in Gulf countries. Meanwhile, in France, deaths related to extreme heat at work rose from 4 in 2020 to 12 in 2022. In that same year, 5 workers died in Italy due to the effects of heat.
As for the economic repercussions, extreme heat is already causing GDP losses of 5.9% in South Asia—between Pakistan and India, for example—and 3.6% in Africa. And in Europe? By mid-century, if we continue on the current trajectory, the decline in GDP due to thermal stress on workers will be half a percentage point.
This has been calculated in a study published in the journal Nature, to which the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) contributed. “Our study is the first comprehensive review explicitly exploring how thermal stress impacts various components of the workforce—supply, productivity, and work capacity—and the corresponding effects on occupational and economic health,” explains Shouro Dasgupta, CMCC researcher and lead author of the study.
Extreme Heat: How Does It Affect Worker Productivity and Health?
Research on heat stress has often focused on specific aspects, such as work capacity. This study shifts the perspective. It is the first comprehensive review that analyzes how heat impacts every component of the workforce, its economic effects, and occupational health.
Temperature directly affects work performance. This is the starting point. Beyond certain temperature thresholds, the decline in performance becomes drastic. And with global warming, these negative effects will worsen. Sectors that are already vulnerable, such as agriculture and construction, will be hit hardest, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. But even less vulnerable sectors, such as manufacturing and public services, will feel the impact.
“The increase in costs for businesses in terms of lost production, higher healthcare expenses, or insurance coverage are the economic impacts typically associated with heat stress on the workforce,” commented Francesco Bosello, principal scientist at CMCC. “However, the indirect impacts—those that propagate from the affected sectors to the broader economic system—are just as significant, and they are not solely a concern for ‘hot developing economies.’”
