Global warming is set to heighten tsunami dangers in the Mediterranean by 30%, warns research from INGV. Discover how climate change and sea-level rise could affect densely populated coastal regions
The Climate Crisis Amplifies Tsunami Risks in the Mediterranean
Global warming is poised to significantly escalate the risks and severity of tsunamis in the Mediterranean. According to recent projections, the likelihood of 1–2-meter-high tsunami waves impacting Mediterranean coastlines could rise from 10% to 30% over the next 50 years, posing a serious threat to densely populated areas.
This alarming prediction is based on two groundbreaking studies conducted by researchers at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). These findings highlight the urgent need for effective planning and risk management strategies to safeguard Mediterranean coastal regions from the dual threats of climate change and seismic activity.
Global Warming and Tsunamis: What’s Next for the Mediterranean?
Among the many impacts of climate change, slow-onset events—such as sea-level rise—are among the hardest to predict and mitigate.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that global sea levels could rise by up to 1.1 meters by 2100 compared to today. Coupled with coastal subsidence, this phenomenon is expected to exacerbate the risk of tsunami-induced flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.
The two studies introduce a novel approach to assessing these risks. For the first time, researchers have combined vertical coastal movements, such as subsidence, with sea-level rise projections to create updated scenarios for more precise tsunami risk evaluations.
The Results: A Dire Warning for Coastal Communities
The findings suggest that global warming, compounded by rising sea levels and geological movements, could dramatically increase tsunami hazards in the Mediterranean in the coming decades, threatening over 150 million people.
“We analyzed how geological movements interact with sea-level rise, aggravating risks in areas where the ground is naturally subsiding,” explains Anita Grezio, lead researcher at INGV and the study’s principal author.
“Our research provides new tools to assess tsunami risks by incorporating future scenarios that account for both climate change and geological phenomena,” Grezio concludes.
European Union-Backed Research Projects
The studies are part of two EU-funded projects coordinated by INGV: Savemedcoasts2 and TSUMAPS-NEAM. These initiatives aim to enhance risk assessment tools and improve resilience strategies for vulnerable Mediterranean coastal areas.
By integrating climate and geological data, these projects represent a significant leap forward in understanding the compound risks posed by global warming and tectonic activity, reinforcing the need for immediate action to protect Mediterranean coastal populations.
