Italy had the warmest July 4th with +2,2°C of global warming over the average of the last 30 years
July 2024 was 1.48°C warmer than the average pre-industrial period, at +0.68°C compared to the last 30 years (1991-2020). Just 4 cents of the degree below the absolute record for July, reached last year. This ends the 13 consecutive months that began in June 2023, when each month was the hottest ever. And it is also the first time, in 12 months, that global warming has fallen below the 1.5°C threshold. But the primates recorded in the first part of the year will probably be enough to bring 2024 to the top of the global warming ranking.
Global warming, data for July 2024
The slight decline in global warming in July is probably linked to the depletion of the El Niño influx. This phenomenon is, at its utmost, related to the natural variability of the planet’s climate, which can increase global warming by about two-tenths of a degree annually. It is also for the “Child” that 2023 and the beginning of 2024 have recorded such high temperatures.
However, the weakening of El Niño did not prevent very high levels of global warming in July 2024. The average temperature on the planet was 16.91°C, and it was exactly last month that the Earth experienced its 2 warmest days in absolute terms. On 22 and 23 July, the global mercury column reached 17.16 and 17.15°C, respectively.
In the data series of the European Copernicus satellite system, which started in 1940, a single day above the global average of 17°C had never been recorded before 2022. In 2023 there were 12, this year, for the moment, we are 16.
2024 will be the warmest year in history
So, just broaden the look a little to place the July data in a framework in which, with all likelihood, 2024 will be the warmest year ever since the beginning of scientific observations. The moving average of the last 12 months, from August 2023 to July 2024, brings global warming to +1.64°C over the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) and to +0.76°C for the last 30 years.
Meanwhile, global warming between January and July 2024 will be +0.7°C above the average for 1991-2020. That is, 0.27 degrees higher than in the same period of 2023. “Given the large positive global temperature anomalies observed in the latter part of 2023 and the transition to La Niña conditions expected in the coming months, the margin between 2024 and 2023 is expected to decrease by the end of the year,” Copernicus emphasizes. But it is improbable that mitigating global warming will be so significant that it will make 2024 less hot than 2023.
Global warming in Europe and Italy
Also, at the European level, July 2024 was the second warmest since the beginning of the historic series. The average temperature of the continent was 1.49 degrees higher than the average for the period 1991-2020, which had only been exceeded since July 2010 when it had reached +1.73°C. The moving average of the last 12 months sets global warming for Europe at +1.46°C over the previous 30 years, the highest ever. The warmest year for Europe, 2020, had ended with +1.19°C. In Italy, last month was the 4th warmest since 1950, but with a level of global warming higher than Europe: +2,2°C on 1991-2020