The EU must cut emissions by 78% by 2035 to meet the 1.5-degree target

The Climate Action Tracker calculates the targets that the world's largest polluters need to set in the next cycle of NDCs to do their part in meeting the 1.5-degree threshold. By February 10, 2025, all countries will need to submit their updated “voluntary national contributions."

What should the 2035 climate targets set by the world’s largest polluters look like to keep global warming below the 1.5-degree threshold? As negotiations at COP29 Climate in Baku start to gain momentum, the ambition of the final declaration will influence the next cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). By February 10, each country will be required to submit its 2035 National Climate Plans (NDCs) to the UNFCCC.

NDC: What They Are and Why They Matter

NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are commitments each country makes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to limiting global temperature rise.

National Climate Plans were introduced under the 2015 Paris Agreement. While not legally binding, every member state of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is required to submit and update them.

Each country sets specific targets for cutting emissions and adapting to climate change on a voluntary basis.

Why Are NDCs Important?

1. Global Common Goals:
   NDCs contribute to the overarching objective of limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
2. Customization:
   NDCs are tailored to each country’s specific circumstances, reflecting their unique responsibilities, economic capacities, and climate vulnerabilities.
3. Periodic Updates:
   Commitments must be regularly updated and strengthened to align with evolving ambitions and technological advancements. The next update is due by February 10, 2025.

Every five years, countries report their progress in meeting their NDCs, fostering a positive competition to adopt clean technologies and reduce emissions.

The Benefits of Ambitious, Well-Planned NDCs

An effective NDC can:

• Generate economic and social benefits (e.g., creating green-sector jobs),
• Improve air quality,
• Protect biodiversity and ecosystems.

2035 National Climate Plans (NDCs) of the EU and Major Polluters

A report by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) released on November 14 outlines the key targets that major polluting nations must integrate into their NDCs to align with the 1.5°C goal. Lower or vaguer targets indicate that these countries—China, the US, the EU, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and India, which collectively emit over 60% of global greenhouse gases—are falling short of their responsibilities.

The EU’s 2035 NDC

The EU has set a 2030 target of reducing emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. Additionally, it has proposed a 2040 target of a 90% reduction compared to 1990, which still requires formal approval. However, no intermediate 2035 target has been established.

According to CAT, a 1.5°C-compatible pathway for Europe would require emissions to drop to 1,020 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq), achieving a 78% reduction compared to 1990.

Current policies, however, project EU emissions in 2035 to reach 2,000–2,500 MtCO2eq (-49% to -59% compared to 1990).

Other Major Polluters Are Also Off Track

China: At its current pace, China is projected to emit 12,000–13,000 MtCO2eq in 2035—more than double the CAT-compatible level of 5,200 MtCO2eq. This would require China to cut emissions by 78% (including land use) or 66% (excluding land use) from 2023 levels.

United States: The US would need to reduce emissions by 80% (including land use) or 70% (excluding land use) compared to 2005 levels. Current policies project US emissions in 2035 at 3,800–5,000 MtCO2eq, while the 1.5°C-compatible level is 2,225 MtCO2eq.

The following table summarizes all the 1.5°C-compatible targets that these countries should include in their 2035 National Climate Plans