Coal, renewables, and electric cars fuel experts' optimism. But China will miss its carbon intensity target for the economy by 2025.
China is increasingly likely to reach its greenhouse gas emissions peak at least five years ahead of schedule. The official target is by 2030, but 44% of industry experts believe Beijing’s CO2 emissions may have already peaked this year, or at the latest, will do so next year. In 2023, this percentage was half as much, at just 21%. This is according to the annual survey on China’s energy transition trajectory conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in collaboration with the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS).
Coal, Renewables, and EVs Drive China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Peak
Several factors are fueling observers’ optimism, chief among them coal consumption levels. More than half of respondents (52%) anticipate that China’s coal consumption will peak by 2025, a significant increase from 36% in 2023.
Additionally, exponential growth in renewables and electric vehicle (EV) sales is contributing to this outlook. For three consecutive months in 2024, over 50% of new vehicle sales in China were electric vehicles.
However, other key climate goals remain at risk, particularly the carbon intensity target. Beijing aims to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2025 compared to 2021 levels per unit of GDP. Achieving this would require a 6% cut in greenhouse gas emissions between 2024 and 2025. Yet data indicates that emissions are still expected to grow slightly, by 0.4%, this year.
The table below summarizes the indicators assessed in the CREA-ISETS report, showing which are on track and which are lagging behind China’s short-, medium-, and long-term climate goals:
| Indicators on Track | Indicators Still Off Track |
|---|---|
| Investments in clean energy | Total CO2 emissions, excluding the effect of weather variations |
| Electrification | Total energy consumption |
| Coal use in the construction sector | Industrial energy consumption |
| Energy consumption in transport and CO2 emissions | Energy consumption in buildings |
| Steel and cement production | Growth in coal consumption in the coal-chemical sector, accelerated by new political support |
| Emissions from the building materials sector | Greenhouse gas emissions other than CO2 not aligned with systematic reductions and progress monitoring |
| Electric vehicle sales |
“Achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is no easy task, but the country’s substantial efforts are beginning to bear fruit,” comments Xunpeng Shi of ISETS. “As China continues its transition, the benefits are becoming increasingly evident: the widespread adoption of clean energy and ongoing industrial transformation promise even greater advantages.”
Next year, China will need to set new climate targets through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Among the possibilities is the introduction, for the first time, of an absolute greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, rather than one based on the carbon intensity of the economy.
