A study published in Nature Communications provides an estimate of the global maximum capacity for CO2 capture and storage by 2050, integrating technological, political, and financial considerations.
How much can we rely on carbon capture and storage?
To stay below the 2°C global warming threshold, the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes the need for substantial contributions from carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The scale of emissions reductions required at the source significantly impacts the demand for these technologies. For the most ambitious pathways, only 1 billion tons of CO2 (GtCO2) per year must be removed. Conversely, less ambitious scenarios might require up to 30 GtCO2 annually.
Are we equipped with sufficiently developed technologies to handle these volumes of CO2? Do we have suitable storage sites? Are we investing enough in the necessary infrastructure? And, ultimately, what is the realistic volume of CO2 that we can expect to capture and store by mid-century?
A study published on August 28 in Nature Communications addresses these questions, providing the first estimate of its kind. According to the authors, the maximum achievable global capacity for CO2 removal could reach 16 GtCO2 per year by 2050. This is roughly half the amount needed if reduced emissions are not accelerated. However, it is sufficient to align with many of the more ambitious IPCC scenarios, which on average require 8 GtCO2 annually.
The 16 GtCO2 figure represents the theoretical “feasible” capacity, assuming adequate investment is made. Yet current investments fall significantly short of the required volumes. Considering current investment rates and potential growth curves modeled after other sectors, the study realistically projects that by 2050, we could achieve a maximum capacity of 5-6 GtCO2 per year for CO2 capture and storage.
“Our study is the first to apply growth models from established sectors to CO2 storage. Existing forecasts are based on speculative assumptions, but by using historical data and trends from other industries, our new model provides a more realistic and practical approach for predicting the pace at which carbon storage can be scaled up, helping us set more achievable targets,” notes Samuel Krevor from Imperial College London and co-author of the study.
