Three decisive years, three years wasted. From 2021 to today, we have made no concrete progress in controlling the Earth’s temperature. We are still heading towards a 2.7°C increase in global warming by 2100. Exactly like three years ago.
This long phase of stagnation highlights the “fundamental discrepancy” between the reality of climate change and the urgency that governments attach to the policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This is the conclusion of Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the organization that monitors the impact of national and global policies on the climate, in the November 2024 update of the Warming Projections Global Update report.
Global Warming Increase: Updated Projections
The projected increase in global warming of +2.7°C by 2100, compared to pre-industrial levels, is based on the current policies in place today. However, this figure has a rather broad margin of uncertainty.
+2.7°C is a median estimate: there is a 50% chance that the actual global warming level will be higher or lower.
“Our understanding of the climate system tells us there is a 33% chance that our projection will be 3.0°C – or higher – and a 10% chance that it will be 3.6°C or higher, a level of warming that would be absolutely catastrophic,” explains Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga, lead author of the report.
According to CAT, the world will still manage to reach peak emissions by 2030. However – and this is an important distinction – the total volumes of emissions will be much higher than those predicted only a few years ago.
And what about the specter of the Trump presidency and its climate change denial policies, starting with the appointment of Lee Zeldin to head the EPA? According to CAT, this will have little impact on the increase in global warming: only an additional 0.04°C.
Updated Global Warming Scenarios
The updated global warming scenarios for November 2024 are as follows:
- Current policies: +2.7°C, with a minimum of +2.2°C and a maximum of +3.4°C
- 2030 targets met (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs): +2.6°C (2.1-3.2°C)
- All targets and strategies met (NDCs + long-term targets): +2.1°C (1.7-2.7°C)
- Optimistic scenario (complete fulfillment of all commitments and promises, including announcements): +1.9°C (1.5-2.4°C)
In terms of the ambition of climate targets, 2024 has been a year marked by “minimal progress, with almost no new national climate targets (NDCs) or net zero commitments,” the report emphasizes. But time is passing. As a result, CAT’s projections for global warming have “slightly increased both in terms of the 2030 targets and optimistic scenarios, from 2.5°C to 2.6°C and from 1.8°C to 1.9°C compared to one year ago.”