So far, Beijing has only set emission and energy intensity targets, linking greenhouse gases and economic growth. The target for 2021-2025, a reduction of 18%, is, however, out of reach despite the renewables boom. From 2026 a carbon budget for provinces and municipalities will also be in force
From 2030, the maximum emission ceiling will become the main criterion
For the first time, China has decided to introduce an emission ceiling on absolute greenhouse gas emissions. Until now, the most polluting country in the world has only adopted criteria related to energy intensity and emission. It thus linked emission volumes to economic growth, without setting absolute quantitative targets.
The decision will be implemented from the next five-year plan, between 2026 and 2030. The new system will be “dual”: Emission and energy intensity criteria will remain in force and will remain the main indicators, but will be accompanied by a maximum emission ceiling.
A dual system, with a maximum emission ceiling
How will this system work? China will not introduce a national emission ceiling, but will set carbon budgets at the disposal of individual provinces and municipalities. This carbon budget system will enter into force in 2026 after a test phase is conducted in 2025. According to the document drawn up by the Council of State, starting from 2030 the carbon budget will become the main criterion and will pave the way for an effective and more decisive reduction of greenhouse gases.
“The development of clean energy allows the Chinese government to set more ambitious emission reduction targets. To align itself with the climate targets of the Paris Agreement, China must reach its emissions peak as soon as possible and a 30% reduction from its peak by 2035,” stresses the think tank Clean Air Task Force, which runs a programme to monitor China’s emission trajectory.
This year, for the first time in China, the wind and photovoltaic capacity installed at the national level has finally surpassed that of coal as a primary energy source. In the first six months of the year alone, Beijing added 25 GW of wind power and over 100 GW of photovoltaic power, while the additional capacity of coal reached 8 GW.
