Europe has reduced emissions by 30% since 1990, but without further action, it risks missing its 2030 targets by 9%—or up to 29% when including sectors like agriculture and waste. Bridging the gap will require $1 trillion annually, double the current investment levels. Key priorities include tripling the number of electric cars and infrastructure, expanding wind power, and boosting CO2 capture by 8.5 times
Europe has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 30% between 1990 and 2021. However, if it continues at the current pace, the EU and the UK will exceed their 2030 climate targets by 200 million tons of CO2, or 9%. This could rise to 29% if emissions from agriculture, waste, and land use are included. To correct the course, Europe needs to bridge the investment gap in its energy transition: $1 trillion annually, double the current amount. Renewable energy investments must grow by 23% compared to 2023 levels, according to the BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook: Europe report.
“To avoid exceeding its climate targets, Europe must also make progress in addressing other net greenhouse gas emissions from sectors like agriculture, land-use change, and waste,” said Emma Champion, the report’s lead author. “When we account for emissions beyond CO2 from the energy sector, the risk of exceeding the 2030 climate targets is even greater, potentially up to a 29% overshoot,” she added.
Priorities for Europe’s Energy Transition
To meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets and position itself for the 2040 interim targets (still being defined), electrification will drive two-thirds of the emissions reductions between 2024 and 2050.
BNEF sets three priorities for aligning Europe’s energy transition with a net-zero emissions scenario:
- Achieve full decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050.
- Wind capacity should reach 1.3 terawatts by 2050, doubling the current policy scenario.
- The number of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure should triple compared to current levels.
On wind power, BNEF notes significant challenges due to delays in permits in key markets, including Italy. Wind power is therefore a bottleneck in Europe’s energy transition. “The sector’s difficulties could limit large-scale supply, even though the technology is one of the most affordable options to decarbonize energy supply.”
Another barrier is scaling up CO2 capture and storage. The capacity needed in the Net Zero scenario would require an 8.5-fold increase in investments in the technology compared to 2023 levels for the remainder of the decade.
