Joint Research Centre study examines waste flows from the EU’s renewable energy transition By mid-century, wind energy waste will surpass photovoltaic waste
Circular economy strategies for Europe’s renewable energy
As renewable energy installations expand across Europe, so do concerns about their end-of-life management. In a perfectly circular economy, photovoltaic and wind waste from obsolete installations would be repurposed as secondary raw materials for new projects and components, helping Europe reduce its dependence on foreign supply chains. However, the reality is far from achieving full circularity, especially in the photovoltaic and wind sectors.
The critical question is: what volumes of waste are we dealing with, and on what timeline? A new report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), Circular Economy Strategies for the EU’s Renewable Electricity Supply, addresses this issue. The study quantifies waste materials from decommissioned fossil fuel plants and renewable electricity infrastructure up to 2023 and projects photovoltaic and wind waste volumes through 2050.
The findings are striking. In the solar sector alone, the EU-27 is expected to accumulate between 6 and 13 million tons of photovoltaic waste by 2040, rising to 21–35 million tons by 2050. Meanwhile, by 2030, around 42,500 wind turbines will reach the end of their operational life, a number set to double to 86,000 by 2050.
These massive waste volumes underscore the urgent need to develop active secondary markets for reused and recycled materials. Doing so would minimize waste and enhance the bloc’s strategic autonomy.
Wind energy waste: the end-of-life challenge for wind turbines
Wind turbines consist of 85% recyclable metals (steel, iron, and cast iron), including valuable rare earth elements like neodymium, used in permanent magnets. The main challenge lies in the remaining 15%, made up of reinforced polymers and composite materials used in turbine blades.
Turbine blades are complex composite structures, typically built with sandwich composites (a core of balsa wood, PET, or PVC foam sandwiched between fiberglass layers) and unidirectional fiber composites (fiberglass and/or carbon fiber bonded with polymer resin). They also contain small amounts of metal components (such as lightning protection systems and bolts), which make up about 1% of their weight.
Recycling these components is particularly challenging due to the solid bonding of materials and the non-recyclable nature of thermoset polymers. Currently, there are four main disposal routes:
- Reuse: repurposing sections of turbine blades or composite materials for new structural or semi-structural applications, such as pedestrian bridges, playgrounds, and even surfboards.
- Mechanical recycling: grinding materials into smaller particles for secondary uses.
- Thermal recycling: burning components for energy recovery.
- Chemical recycling: breaking down materials at a molecular level for reuse.
Among these, reuse is the simplest approach, providing new applications while extending material life.
Photovoltaic waste: the end-of-life challenge for solar panels
Assessing the end-of-life phase of a solar panel is more complex and requires statistical and physical models to estimate degradation rates. The performance of photovoltaic modules does not decline linearly but follows probability distribution models, with the most common being:
- Regular Loss (RL) model: assumes a lifespan of about 30 years.
- Early Loss (EL) model: predicts premature failures, as outlined by IRENA.
- WEEE Directive model: follows the EU’s waste electronics directive, also assuming early failures.
Photovoltaic waste composition also varies with technological advancements. The most common waste materials include glass, aluminum, steel, EVA, silicon, copper, and magnesium, along with small but valuable amounts of silver. Specific photovoltaic technologies (a-Si, CdTe, CIGS) also contribute critical raw materials like magnesium, gallium, indium, manganese, and titanium, which the EU classifies as strategic resources.
Current waste flows: photovoltaic, wind, and fossil infrastructur
Steel, aluminum, and copper are not exclusive to the photovoltaic and wind industries—they are also key materials in fossil fuel plants. According to JRC estimates, in 2023 alone, the cumulative decommissioned steel volume from various energy sectors was:
- 10,940 tons from photovoltaic panels
- 274,194 tons from wind turbines
- 5.9 million tons from fossil fuel plants
The same year, cumulative aluminum waste from PV panels and wind turbines reached 24,000 tons, while copper waste exceeded 4,800 tons.
Future photovoltaic and wind waste in the EU-27
As noted earlier, the EU-27 is projected to face between 6 and 13 million tons of cumulative photovoltaic waste by 2040, increasing to 21–35 million tons by 2050. The JRC report highlights that efficient panel recycling could significantly boost the EU’s goal of producing 40% of its renewable energy technology domestically.
“If properly collected and recycled, silver from solar panels could fully meet the demand for new photovoltaic production,” the study states.
By 2030, around 42,500 wind turbines in the EU will reach the end of their lifespan, increasing to 86,000 by 2050. The report further predicts that wind energy infrastructure will generate more waste than solar panels by mid-century.
