On 27 June, the Heads of State or Government approved the strategy paper for EU policies for the next five years. Until the end, the key dossiers of the Green Deal had been depowered or directly deleted from the text. Final version subordinates green themes to industry and competitiveness
The EU Strategic Agenda will guide the work of the next Commission
Over the next five years, the European Union will continue the legacy of the Green Deal. But more attention to industrial competitiveness and a smooth transition. Translated: climate and environment policies remain, but a little less at the center, with more attention to the interests of industry and less ambition than in the last five years. This is what emerges from reading the EU Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029, approved yesterday by the 27.
It was far from obvious. Up to 48 hours before the vote of the Heads of State or Government, many key points on climate and environment had disappeared from the address document for the next EU cycle. The work on the EU Strategic Agenda has been going on for a year and, in April, the latest draft was plundered of issues related to the Green Deal.
Further confirmation, if ever needed, of the impatience with which many European countries have experienced measures such as the Law on the Restoration of Nature, the stop to diesel and petrol engines from 2035, the Law on Deforestation, the first proposal for reform of the CAP.
Towards an Industrial Deal?
he Agenda has been approved along with the agreement on the main posts. von der Leyen for the encore at the Commission, Portuguese Socialist Antonio Costa to lead the Council, Estonian Kaja Kallas to coordinate the EU’s external action. All agree, except Italy and Hungary: the Meloni government – excluded from the negotiations – rejected Costa and Kallas and abstained on von der Leyen.
The Ursula 2.0 Commission – if Von der Leyen is confirmed by the European Parliament – will start where it left off. Much of the Green Deal is approved, but there is a strong temptation to go back to the measures already in place. Especially the one about endothermic engines. In the meantime, it will be necessary to decide on ways and times to reach the 2040 targets, for now set at -90% of emissions. Tractor protests scare governments afraid of losing support and agriculture will probably be even more pampered than it has been in the last five years, starting with a reform of the common agricultural policy (CAP) based on the minimum wage. The energy transition must be speeded up, just as European industry must be enabled to support it.
It was from the industry that von der Leyen started again, launching his bid for a second race last February. No more Green Deal but an Industrial Deal. For the former German Defense Minister, a second “leg” of climate policy. On which, however, he never spent many words to explain what role they should play in the next 5 years. Other topics were on the agenda: energy security, strategic autonomy, (perhaps) common defence, more ability to influence and compete globally.
What the EU Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 contains
For all these reasons, reading what the EU Strategic Agenda for the next 5 years contains is a way to understand how much will to carry forward the Green Deal has remained, what are the margins for the Commission in dialogue with the Council, what is the specific weight of climate and environment compared to other dossiers. The last-minute inclusion of references to green issues speaks volumes about how much political will is reduced, or at least very little shared by the 27. And the way the EU works, it’s almost a red light.
But the premises are not all negative. Climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution are mentioned at the beginning of the document among the factors that are changing the world, along with new technologies, global instability and wars, and a new paradigm of strategic competition.
Climate and the environment, however, will probably be one of the guidelines through which to develop, or mainly, other objectives, rather than a pillar for the next five years. Starting with the reconfiguration of the European industry. The twist of the Green Deal, with the second mandate of von der Leyen, will follow the compass of competitiveness and will be increasingly intertwined with digitalization: “We will strengthen our competitiveness and become the first continent with zero climate impact, successfully making the climate and digital transition, leaving no one behind,” reads the EU Strategic Agenda. The competitiveness that also directs the transition to the climate transition is “fair and equitable”, to be achieved “to remain competitive globally and increase our energy sovereignty“.
What will the climate and environment policies be like? The Agenda sets a target: pragmaticity. A response to the accusation directed at the last Commission of being “ideological” on climate. In practice, we could see fewer really transformative measures and a much more incremental approach. But pragmaticity is also a concept that in recent years has been linked to the demand for more flexibility, for states, in implementing the pieces of the Green Deal. “We will be pragmatic and we will exploit the potential of green and digital transitions to create the high-quality markets, industries and jobs of the future”, reads the Agenda at the beginning of the section dedicated to “green and digital transitions”.
Competitiveness and pragmatism will also be the tracks of agricultural policies. “We will support vibrant rural communities and strengthen the position of farmers in the food supply chain,” the 27 write in the EU Strategic Agenda, echoing the mantra of the last few months with which attempts have been made to appease the tractor squares. That is: more subsidies, or easier to obtain them, or less checks on the funds received. And a particular attention to the relationships of power in the supply chains.
Nature, ecosystems, and water come last. “We will continue to protect nature and reverse the degradation of ecosystems, including oceans. We will strengthen water resilience across the Union“, the document says in one of the passages that had been deleted from the last draft. A few words, but enough not to delegitimize the most controversial part of the Green Deal. And on which to try to build new policies, now with the look to 2030.
