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What happened during the first seven days of COP29 climate negotiations?

Negotiations on climate finance post-2025 are still in disarray. Other issues have been postponed until June 2025. In Baku, the dialogue is becoming increasingly difficult. Ministers will arrive on Monday.

COP29 climate negotiations

Climate Finance Post-2025: Open Clash Between Global North and South

“There is still a long way to go.” With these words, Simon Stiell, head of the UN climate office, summed up the outcome of the first week of negotiations at COP29 in Baku, where an agreement on climate finance to fight the climate crisis is being sought.

At the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, the main topic remains climate finance. Developing countries are asking for $1.3 trillion per year to tackle the climate crisis, but wealthier countries are far from this figure.

While negotiators continue to discuss the modalities of these funds, with all options still on the table, attention will shift to the direct involvement of ministers during the second week of negotiations.

The real challenge now is to find an agreement that not only addresses the damage already caused but also accelerates the transition to a low-emission future.

The draft agreement on the new post-2025 climate finance goal is still far from finalized. The latest version, released on November 16 at 3:30 PM, contains a significant number of unresolved sections. The document now spans 25 pages, up from its initial 9, and is riddled with 415 brackets and 43 alternative options proposed by various negotiating groups.

Key Points of Debate

The most contested issues are those central to achieving a robust agreement. Compared to earlier versions, all options remain on the table for the most critical aspects:

  • The scale of climate finance
  • The division between loans, grants, and investments
  • The balance among mitigation, adaptation, and loss & damage funding

Global North and South negotiators have not yielded any ground on these points.

Paris Agreement Goals at Risk

Diplomatic negotiations often hinge on subtle language shifts, and climate agreements are no exception. The preamble of this draft, a critical part of the climate finance text, reflects significant regression. While the goal of staying below 2°C is emphasized, the more ambitious 1.5°C target has been downgraded to a secondary priority.

This marks a substantial backslide, undermining years of negotiations that prioritized the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious target. Though the 1.5°C goal has not been officially declared unattainable, the preamble suggests that the Baku talks may be leaning in that direction.

Fossil Fuel Transition Under Scrutiny

Even language from last year’s Dubai Agreement, which emphasized the need to transition away from fossil fuels, is proving challenging to replicate. One alternative proposal in the draft avoids directly mentioning fossil fuels, instead referring to “high-carbon intensity investments.”

How Much Money? For What Purpose?

All options remain on the table. They can be divided into two major groups: those proposed by the advanced economies of the Global North, and those preferred by the developing countries of the Global South. These have two entirely different approaches:

Options from the Global North:

  • Call only for surpassing the previous target of $100 billion per year, without specifying a precise figure for the next period.

Options from the Global South:

  • Demand a more ambitious goal, in the range of trillions of dollars over the same period.
  • Include precise indications of how much to mobilize annually.

Other key differences between the alternative proposals concern whether the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) should be fixed or adjustable in the coming years. Some proposals state the NCQG must “respond to ambition,” while others suggest it must “respond to increasing ambition.”

There is still much confusion about what should be financed under the NCQG. Only the needs expressed in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)? Also those in Adaptation Plans? And those in Technology Action Plans?

The other major point of contention is whether to include the Loss and Damage Fund under the post-2025 climate finance goal.

  • The Global South: Wants it included to ensure it doesn’t remain symbolic and receives necessary resources.
  • The Global North: Prefers to address loss and damage funding separately.

Many Negotiation Tracks Postponed to 2025

After a week of discussions, many chapters of the negotiations have been deferred to the next session of the subsidiary bodies in June 2025. These include:

  • The review of the Adaptation Committee;
  • The 2024 review of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage;
  • The links between the Technology Mechanism and the Financial Mechanism; and
  • The provision of support for reporting by developing countries under both the Convention and the Paris Agreement.

Other Topics Discussed at COP29: Where Do We Stand?

Let’s now take a closer look at the progress made during the COP29 climate negotiations in Baku on key negotiation tracks.

Global Stocktake (GST)

The Global Stocktake is a collective assessment of the state of climate action, scheduled every five years under the Paris Agreement. It is designed as a tool to progressively increase collective ambition. The first GST was conducted at COP28 in Dubai last year.

The dialogue on the GST has seen limited progress, with ongoing discussions on how to implement its outcomes.

  • Several groups from the Global South supported the text prepared for the dialogue.
  • The EU called for broader inclusion, emphasizing adaptation and loss and damage.

Despite these divergences, the text remains under discussion and will be revisited in the coming days.

Mitigation

The Mitigation Work Program (MWP) on ambition and implementation highlighted significant disagreements and has been postponed to 2025. Some negotiating groups sought to safeguard the 1.5°C target as the primary objective, while others criticized the approach as being overly top-down, driven by more developed countries.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

By February 10, 2025, all countries must submit their updated NDCs, extending the horizon to 2035. Discussions on the features of these contributions revealed diverging perspectives:

  • The EU proposed improvements, including greater alignment with climate science.
  • The Like-Minded Developing Countries group, comprising China and India, insisted that the features of the NDCs should solely be defined by the Paris Agreement.

The co-facilitators are preparing a summary of opinions for further discussions.

Adaptation

Despite substantial progress on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) during negotiations, consensus was not reached on all elements.

  • The Adaptation Committee review has been postponed to June 2025, coinciding with the next intersessional negotiations in Bonn.
  • This marks the fourth consecutive year without outcomes on this front.
  • The text on the Global Goal on Adaptation will, however, continue to be discussed in Baku.

Announcements from COP29 Climate Negotiations

During the first seven days of the climate summit in Baku, numerous announcements, commitments, and agreements were made on the sidelines of the formal negotiations. Below are the key highlights.

New Targets for Batteries and Grids

The Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge aims to:

  • Increase global energy storage capacity sixfold to 1,500 GW by 2030.
  • Expand/upgrade 25 million km of grids by 2030.

This aligns with broader goals of adding 65 million km by 2040 to meet Net Zero 2050 objectives.

Methane Reduction

The Global Methane Pledge was renewed, targeting a 30% reduction in global methane emissions by 2030, compared to 2020 levels.

  • A group of Latin American countries is incorporating methane emission reductions from organic waste into their NDCs.

Green Corridors

The Green Energy Pledge commits to creating clean energy corridors between nations, driving investments, economic growth, infrastructure modernization, and regional cooperation to support the global energy transition.

Hydrogen Declaration

The Hydrogen Declaration focuses on developing a global market for clean hydrogen, addressing regulatory, technological, financial, and standardization barriers to accelerate the energy transition and foster innovation.

Beyond Oil and Gas (BOGA)

The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) reaffirmed its commitment to phasing out oil and gas production. Participating countries, including Italy, are emphasizing decarbonization and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

Loss and Damage Fund

Sweden pledged $18.4 million to the Loss and Damage Fund, urging further contributions to support vulnerable countries. The fund, however, remains underfunded as discussions on climate finance post-2025 continue.

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)

MDBs committed to mobilizing:

  • $120 billion/year for low- and middle-income countries by 2030 (including $42 billion for adaptation).
  • $50 billion/year for high-income countries (with $7 billion for adaptation).

They emphasized a systemic approach to amplify impact and achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

$10 Trillion Climate Action Pledge

Investors managing over $10 trillion in assets committed to accelerating private capital mobilization for climate markets. The initiative, backed by the BIPCP platform, seeks to unite business, financial, and philanthropic leaders for a shared climate action plan.

Glacier Melting Program

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) launched a $3.5 billion program to address the impact of glacier melting in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Pakistan. The program includes investments in water, agriculture, and support for vulnerable mountain communities.

BICFIT Dialogue for Climate Finance, Investment, and Trade

The BICFIT Dialogue, launched at COP29 climate, integrates finance, investment, and trade into climate action. By engaging MDBs, climate funds, and organizations, it aims to enhance coordination and mobilize resources for a just global transition.

TeraMed Initiative for Renewables in the Mediterranean

Seven Mediterranean countries pledged to develop 1 Terawatt of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Supported by IRENA, the initiative could mobilize $700 billion in investments and create 3 million solar energy jobs.

Breakthrough Agenda: Clean Tech Priorities

The Breakthrough Agenda unveiled the Baku Priority International Actions, focusing on enhanced global collaboration for clean technologies in key sectors. Over 60 countries are committed to reducing emissions and boosting clean hydrogen adoption.

CIF Mechanism for Climate Capital

The CIF Capital Markets Mechanism, listed on the London Stock Exchange, could catalyze up to $75 billion in climate capital over the next decade, facilitating energy transitions in emerging economies.

1,800 Fossil Lobbyists Pollute COP29 Climate Negotiations

Even at COP29 in Baku, the presence of lobbyists from the fossil fuel industries is massive. According to a report from the coalition Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO), 1,773 lobbyists from the oil, gas, and coal sectors have been identified. Taken together, they form one of the largest delegations. Of these, 132 lobbyists were directly invited by the Azerbaijani government.

Major fossil fuel companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell are among the most represented by lobbyists. The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) sponsored a pavilion in Baku to promote the carbon market, climate finance, and CCS technology (carbon capture and storage). According to a DeSmog investigation, Chevron spent $25,000 to be a “supporting partner,” while Exxon, Socar, and TotalEnergies each contributed $10,000.

The Clean the Cop! campaign highlighted that, despite a decrease from COP28 (2,456 lobbyists), the presence of fossil fuel multinationals remains overwhelming and dangerous to the integrity of the negotiations. The accusation? Promoting “false solutions” like CCS, which do not adequately address the climate crisis.

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