Every year, over 1 million km² of land degrade, threatening ecosystems, climate, and biodiversity. COP16 in Riyadh addresses the issue of desertification. $2.6 trillion per year is needed to reverse this trend
At least 1 million square kilometers. That’s the area of land – more than three times the size of Italy – that degrades and begins to turn into desert every year. Currently, more than 15 million square kilometers are already in this condition, an area roughly the size of all of Antarctica. These are the figures under which the COP16 on desertification kicks off today, December 2, in Riyadh. The annual summit on combating desertification, organized by the UNCCD, begins today.
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is one of three global initiatives born from the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, alongside the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).
Finance for Combating Desertification: At Least $2,600 Billion Per Year
Like COP29 in Baku last month on climate, COP16 on desertification will also focus on finance. In Riyadh, the discussion will center on tightening obligations for countries in the fight against desertification. And the counterbalance to more obligations, for countries with fewer resources, is an increase in external aid.
For the first time, the UNCCD has put a number on the table: to reverse land degradation and combat desertification, at least $2,600 billion per year is needed by 2030. This was announced by the UNCCD Executive Secretary, Ibrahim Thiaw, in an interview with Reuters on the eve of COP16 Desertification.
“Most of the investments in land restoration around the world come from public money. And this is not fair. Because essentially, the main driver of land degradation in the world is food production… which is in the hands of the private sector,” Thiaw said. According to the UNCCD, today the private sector provides only 6% of the money needed to rehabilitate degraded lands.
Desertification, a Global Problem: The Data
In addition to putting a financial figure on combating desertification, COP16 is also based on a report regarding the intersection between the soil degradation crisis and other global crises. The study, prepared by the PIK in Potsdam, estimates the increase in desertification at 1 million square kilometers per year and highlights how global issues such as climate change and biodiversity loss are closely linked to land degradation, fueling a vicious cycle that threatens global sustainability.
The approach suggested by the report – and long advocated by PIK scholars – is based on the concepts of “safe operating space” and “planetary boundaries“: it defines sustainability through indicators exploring 9 planetary boundaries and sets a “safe” threshold to avoid disrupting the biophysical processes essential for life on Earth.
According to the most recent UNCCD data on desertification, today:
- 7 out of 9 planetary boundaries are influenced by land use.
- 60%: Remaining global forest cover, well below the safe limit of 75%.
- 15 million km²: Area of degraded land.
- 20%: Land covered by savannas, now threatened by expanding crops and poorly planned reforestation.
- 46%: Global area classified as drylands, home to one-third of humanity; 75% of Africa is arid.
- 90%: Percentage of recent deforestation directly caused by agriculture, dominated by the expansion of crops in Africa and Asia, and livestock grazing in South America.
- 80%: Contribution of agriculture to global deforestation.
- 23%: Share of global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use.
- 50% vs. 6%: Percentage of agricultural emissions due to deforestation in low-income vs. high-income countries.
- 46% / 66%: Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer efficiency; the rest is lost with severe consequences.
- Over 2,700: National policies addressing nitrogen pollution, while phosphorus is largely neglected.
- 25%: Share of global biodiversity found in the soil.
- 20%: Reduction in CO2 absorption capacity of trees and soil since 2015, attributed to climate change.
- Over $500 billion (2013–2018): Agricultural subsidies in 88 countries, 90% of which have fueled inefficient and harmful practices.
