EU hydrogen strategy unlikely to meet 2030 goals
Green hydrogen is central to Europe’s energy transition, seen as a cornerstone for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify industries and transport. Yet, two recent studies cast serious doubt on the feasibility of reaching the EU hydrogen targets by 2030. At the heart of the issue: soaring costs, rising geopolitical risks, and structural delays.
High costs, foreign dependency, and tech immaturity
The European Commission’s 2020 Hydrogen Strategy set ambitious benchmarks, but current conditions make these targets “probably unachievable,” according to the H2 Reality Check report by CASSIS and EWI.
The study highlights three major roadblocks:
- Prohibitive costs: green hydrogen production costs (€4.5–6.5/kg) remain well above those of blue hydrogen (€2.5–4/kg), which is derived from fossil gas combined with carbon capture.
- Geopolitical dependency: 60–70% of the EU’s hydrogen demand is expected to be met through imports from unstable regions like North Africa and the Middle East or through vulnerable maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
- Technology readiness: only 35% of industrial hydrogen applications (such as green steel production) have reached sufficient technological maturity (TRL ≥ 7).
As in previous reports, the study advises narrowing hydrogen use to sectors with no viable alternatives (e.g., chemicals, aviation) and diversifying import sources to avoid replicating the EU’s past overreliance on Russian gas.
Only 17% of EU hydrogen projects are on track
A second report by Westwood Global Energy confirms the challenges, analyzing the progress of hydrogen projects across Europe meant to meet EU hydrogen goals.
Key findings include:
- Just 17% of EU hydrogen projects (12 GW out of the planned 70 GW) are likely to be operational by 2030 without urgent policy and financial support.
- 23 projects totaling 29.2 GW have already been canceled or suspended due to regulatory barriers, high costs, and weak demand.
- In the UK, the outlook is even worse: only 1–24% of the hydrogen pipeline is expected to reach completion.
From Russian gas to Chinese electrolyzers?
Both reports underline a growing energy security paradox in Europe’s hydrogen push. While trying to escape its dependence on Russian gas, the EU may be locking itself into new dependencies: China currently controls 60% of the global electrolyzer market, and hydrogen imports could introduce new geopolitical risks.
The challenge is further complicated by global competition. The United States, under the Trump administration, is doubling down on blue hydrogen and introducing protectionist subsidies, adding pressure on the EU’s clean hydrogen ambitions.