Japan, the world’s third or fourth-largest economy by GDP and the fifth-largest global polluter, has officially announced its new emission reduction targets. While marking a significant shift in policy, these goals still fall short of aligning with the Paris Agreement’s climate commitments.
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Japan’s new emissions reduction targets: a step forward, but not enough
The newly formalized Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims for a 60% reduction by 2035 and 73% by 2040, based on 2013 levels. However, the only legally binding target remains a 46% cut by 2030.
According to Climate Action Tracker, these goals are not ambitious enough. To stay on a 1.5°C warming trajectory, Japan should reach a 60% reduction by 2030. A study from 350.org suggests that by 2035, the country should target at least an 81% cut.
Despite this criticism, Tokyo maintains that its “ambitious targets” align with the 1.5°C goal and are on track for net-zero emissions by 2050.
Japan’s energy strategy: nuclear comeback and renewables expansion
To meet these targets, Japan is making a major return to nuclear energy after years of hesitation following the 2011 Fukushima disaster. The government’s plan sets a 20% nuclear share in the electricity mix by 2040, with the biggest increase happening over the next five years. By 2030, nuclear energy is expected to reach this threshold, up from 8.5% in 2023.
The real transformation, however, will come from renewable energy. Tokyo aims for renewables to supply 40–50% of the electricity mix by 2040, a significant jump from 22.9% in 2023.