According to consulting company Rystad Energy, photovoltaic will become the main source of electricity in China by 2026
Wind and photovoltaic capacity data 2024 in China
2024 will be a challenging year for the Chinese energy sector to forget. The wind and photovoltaic capacity installed at the national level has finally surpassed that of coal as the primary energy source. This is a historic breakthrough for a country that today is by far the world’s largest coal consumer. But above all a trend that is destined to stumble more and more. This is done by the consulting company Rystad Energy, which analyzes the data published by the National Energy Administration (NEA).
That 2024 would be an exceptional year for renewable energy was already understood. Just think of Europe, which celebrated in the first six months of the year the surpassing of wind and photovoltaic on fossil fuels at the level of electricity production. Or more banally to the Italian data: from January to June 2024 in Italy electricity generation from renewables provided 52,9% of the national production.
But if the European situation is no more surprising – in the old continent, the path of energy transition is many more years behind – it is a milestone for China. Understood: in this case, the data is that of the operation capacity and not the energy production. But that does not remove the fact that this is an essential moment in the country’s energy history.
“We’re at a pivotal moment for both China and the global energy transition. With strong renewable energy project pipelines in place, the country is on track to shed its reputation as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and power consumer. Solar energy will be central to this transformation, with advancements in supply chains, infrastructure and capacity additions set to surpass coal in future energy production. This shift could be a landmark achievement, potentially transforming China from a coal-dependent giant into a leader in clean energy,” says Simeng Deng, senior analyst, Rystad Energy”.
In 2024 installed 8 GW of coal and 130 GW of renewables
Going into the data details, you highlight trends of the opposite sign. Since 2020, China’s new wind and photovoltaic capacity has regularly exceeded the 100 GW installed yearly. A growth rate 3-4 times higher than that of coal. The momentum towards renewables peaked in 2023 with a record 293 GW of new wind and solar installations.
However, the first six of 2024 also look attractive, with a new capacity of over 100 GW of renewable energy. In detail, 25 GW of new wind capacity was activated from January to June, with Rystad Energy estimating another 50 GW in the year’s second half. Also, the photovoltaic, with 105 GW added in the first half of this year, should become 230 GW by the end of 2024.
At the same time, fossil fuels have slowed down. Last year, about 40 GW of coal-fired energy was added, but this figure fell to 8 GW in the first half of 2024, according to Rystad Energy’s estimates. The reason? In part, the new government restrictions on projects.
Photovoltaic, first source of electricity in China in 2026
“Efforts are now focused on phasing out smaller coal plants, upgrading existing ones to reduce emissions and enforcing more stringent standards for new projects. As a result, the annual capacity addition gap between coal and clean energy has widened dramatically, reaching a 16-fold difference in the first half of 2024″, the company writes.
According to Rystad Energy, photovoltaics will become China’s primary electricity source by 2026. However, with the growth of green energy capacity, the nation will face new challenges, including improving network flexibility. In this context, the national plan to increase energy storage systems appears essential.
