The UNEP report identifies 18 critical signals to prepare us to deal with the polycrisis
Faced with the “polycrisis” in which we live, where climate crisis and artificial intelligence are intertwined, the degradation of ecosystems and the race to rare lands, the loss of biodiversity and growing inequalities, new conflicts and humanitarian crises, we need a “new social contract” capable of driving us towards “transformative changes”. Based on common objectives and inherited by the “intergenerational equity” criterion.
This is stated in the report “Navigating New Horizons – A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing” released today by UNEP, the United Nations environmental protection agency. An exploratory document condensed 18 months of work and the point of view of hundreds of experts from different disciplines. The target? To face the challenges that shape our present and future in a new, coherent and ambitious way.
“Polycrisis” and “poly-solutions”
The starting point is polycrisis. Coined in the 1970s but became popular after the outbreak of the pandemic, also thanks to intellectuals such as the historian Adam Tooze, this concept is establishing itself as one of the most profitable prospects to “read” the current situation of recent years. In short, a polycrisis is a period when crises of a different nature overlap, intertwine and reinforce each other. And they synchronize. Understanding them and dealing with them is an increasingly complex operation. So much so that it requires not only new solutions, but a new paradigm.
“The speed of change is shocking. Social norms, employment, leisure and our relationship with nature are changing inexorably. The rapid development of new technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) is affecting every aspect of life. Overlapping and interconnected factors will influence the environment,” the authors of the report explain.
Underlining the positive side behind the present-day polycrisis: As problems, so solutions are intertwined. To identify them, we need to pay attention to some critical global changes whose impact can be imposed. The report identifies eight of them. Some are well-known, and others have emerged in recent years or months. But their ability to interact today makes them insidious.
“This new global environment is giving rise to a series of critical changes, emerging problems and potential threats that may or may not occur, but that the world needs to keep an eye on because of their potential to significantly disrupt different sectors and thus affect the planet, human health and well-being,” the report says.
Eight Critical Changes
What are these critical changes? The report analyses:
- the rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, combined with the challenges of governance;
- competition for natural resources;
- new forms of conflict;
- forced displacement and mass migration;
- ever wider inequalities; a decline in confidence in institutions, which appear increasingly weakened;
- the proliferation of bad information and disinformation;
- the growing global multipolarity.
To interpret them, UNEP presents a series of indicators, or “signals”, to be monitored. Competition for natural resources, for example, can have repercussions on global security and, in turn, on the well-being of people in every region of the planet, through the race to critical raw materials. Their demand is expected to quadruple by 2040 and could increase support for activities such as deep sea mining and space mining – mining from the depths of the oceans and from asteroids or planets.
“This presents major challenges for biodiversity and nature, the potential for greater pollution and waste and conflicts for the territory, with vulnerable local and indigenous communities most affected. Mining in the depths of the sea could have an impact on uncontaminated environments and decrease the focus on circularity and efficiency that should be adopted for sustainable development,” the report emphasizes.
On the side of artificial intelligence, the benefits of its use have an environmental impact that should not be underestimated. What emerges at the intersection between increased demand for critical minerals, rare earth and water resources to meet the new demands of data centres. “Practices such as the recycling of electronic waste, energy-efficient data centres, renewable energy and responsible resource management are essential to mitigate environmental damage,” the authors point out.
Other signs of critical changes are more known or more under the reflectors: From the transmission of zoonotic diseases to the emergence of bacteria and viruses from the melting of the permafrost, from the ability of microorganisms to resist antimicrobial treatments to the growing support for geoengineering solutions based on the management of solar radiation. Others, on the other hand, are far more “out of the radar”: the threat posed by space debris, the risks of using artificial intelligence-enabled technologies to create biological weapons. Others still often populate the chronicles and are discussed in international venues, but with little effectiveness. This is the case, for example, of the insurance crisis in the face of the climate crisis, the risk of corruption in carbon compensation, or even the spread of eco-anxiety.
“There is no guarantee that the crises presented in this report will occur. But they could happen. We have to be ready. Therefore, this report suggests how to monitor, deal with and prepare to deal with them, including keeping the focus on achieving international goals, avoiding political traps and missed opportunities”, concludes UNEP Director Inger Andersen.