An IISD report analyzes the 26 "feasible" emissive scenarios that respect 1.5 degrees. In all, it is necessary not to put into production any new fossil deposit
There is scientific “broad consensus” on the need to stop new fossil fuel deposits
(sustainabilityenvironment.com) – What are fossil fuel? If we want to retain some reasonable chance of limiting global temperatures to 1.5 ºC, we have to say enough about every new generation of fossil fuel deposits. The stop to fossils is a necessary condition in all emissive paths that limit global warming to the lower threshold of the Paris agreement and are considered “feasible”. These are, that is, the emissive scenarios that the latest IPCC report classifies in category C1 and foresee an overshoot (limited or absent) and have a probability of remaining below 1.5 degrees of at least 50%.
This is stated by a review of all the relevant scientific literature conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Of the 97 total emissive scenarios, the report extrapolates 26 that reflect the feasibility criteria advanced by the IPCC itself, for example requiring a CO2 capture amount from the air of less than 3 Gt per year. In all 26 the indispensable passage is the stop to the fossils of new production.
Read also IPCC report: Moving to sustainable lifestyles cuts global emissions by 40-70%
According to a broad consensus on multiple climate and energy models, the development of new oil and gas fields is incompatible with the limitation of heating to 1.5°C. Global oil and gas production and consumption must decrease by at least 65% by 2050″, reads the report published on 21 October. The 1.5°C roadmap published by the IEA in May 2021 also contained the same warning.
Another important message from the IISD report: the stop to fossils and the development of renewables according to a trajectory consistent with the Paris goal are two sides of the same coin. It is a question of funding, especially at a time when economic hardship is exacerbated by the energy crisis and the global impact of the war in Ukraine. “The annual investment gap for the necessary deployment of wind and solar is $450 billion until 2030. Forecasts indicate that in the same period will be spent up to 570 billion dollars per year for the development and exploration of oil and gas”, write the authors.
