An optimized predictive control algorithm is making heat pumps more "grid-friendly" while reducing costs.
A new predictive control algorithm could help improve both comfort levels and reduce the operating costs of heat pumps. Researchers Vukasin Klepic, Magdalena Lupo, and Tobias Pröll from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna have been working on this innovative solution. According to a report published in Energy and Buildings, the team enhanced an existing Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm, which has already been successfully implemented in buildings to optimize comfort parameters. Their advancement includes energy price forecasting, allowing heat pumps to operate more cost-effectively while also benefiting the electrical grid.
This breakthrough could be key in making heat pumps more affordable and sustainable.
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Heat Pumps in Italy: A Growing Opportunity Despite Market Challenges
taly remains fertile ground for heat pumps, despite a sharp drop in sales (-44.1%) recorded in 2023. The country still holds the position as the second-largest market in Europe in terms of installed units. According to the latest data from Assoclima, the decline is not across the board. The residential sector, facing complications due to changes in energy efficiency incentives, has seen a significant downturn. In contrast, the commercial sector continues to expand, with a notable rise in sales of heat pumps and chillers exceeding 17 kW in capacity.
Are Incentives Needed?
How can attention be refocused on reviving growth in the domestic heat pump market? Many are still hoping for the European heat pump plan, initially promised as part of the REPowerEU initiative but shelved ahead of the EU elections. The hope is that under von der Leyen’s second term, the plan will be revived, aiming to install 40 million new heat pumps across the bloc by 2030.
One thing is certain: reaching that target will require support. Initial costs, including purchase and installation, remain higher than those of fossil-fuel-based heating options. However, in some regions, lower operating costs and greater long-term benefits can offset these.
Reducing Heat Pump Costs
Research from Vienna’s University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences could help address the need to reduce both the overall energy demand and align it with periods of renewable energy surplus. “Heat pump systems for heating or cooling are particularly adept at offering short-term flexibility, especially when integrated with thermal storage (e.g., thermally activated building mass, hot water tanks),” the researchers noted. This integration allows energy loads to shift toward times of high renewable energy supply and lower prices. Their findings show that, beyond improving grid operations, consumers can also achieve significant annual financial savings.
But how can these benefits be calculated? The team improved the predictive control algorithm for indoor comfort by incorporating and processing real-time electricity prices from the previous day.
The New MPC Algorithm
“The European electricity market analysis reveals that electricity is cheaper during periods of energy surplus and more expensive during shortages. These price dynamics are reflected in day-ahead electricity pricing. The extended MPC algorithm, equipped with cost optimization capabilities, can shift energy generation for heating or cooling to periods when electricity is cheaper,” according to Energy and Buildings.
This allows for grid-friendly operations driven by market prices. With the future development of smart tariffs, consumers will have more opportunities to cut electricity costs through demand-side flexibility. The enhanced MPC algorithm perfectly addresses these challenges and enables demand-side management for heating and cooling systems.
The new algorithm was validated through a building simulation in Matlab/Simulink over a one-month heating period. Depending on price fluctuations, the simulation resulted in cost savings ranging from 6.65% to 12.5% over the observation period.
