By 2030, data center energy demand in Europe will hit 287 TWh. Can AI-driven growth align with climate goals, or will fossil fuels slow the transition?
By 2030, energy demand from data centers in Europe, including the UK, is projected to hit 287 TWh—the equivalent of Spain’s total electricity consumption in 2022. This marks a staggering 160% increase from 2022 levels, largely driven by the rise of artificial intelligence. Meeting this demand poses challenges under any energy scenario and should be a central issue in both national and EU energy planning.
Europe’s data center energy demand: two scenarios
This warning comes from the Beyond Fossil Fuel coalition, which recently released a report analyzing two possible scenarios—one following a business-as-usual approach and another adopting a more ambitious renewable-driven strategy.
In the baseline scenario, 61% of the energy needed for new data centers would come from fossil gas. The consequences? An additional 121 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions between 2025 and 2030. This would slow decarbonization efforts, causing a 3.55% increase in EU emissions compared to 2023 levels. To put it in perspective, the additional emissions from data center energy use alone would exceed one-third of Italy’s current annual emissions.
The alternative scenario envisions full reliance on renewable energy to power data centers, drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, even a fully renewable-powered approach presents challenges. Data centers could consume up to 20% of new renewable capacity, limiting availability for other sectors like electric transportation and industry.
Transparency and Renewable Commitments: The Keys to Greener Data Centers
How can this challenge be addressed? Beyond Fossil Fuels stresses the need for a firm commitment to 100% fossil-free data centers. Companies must ensure that every new facility is powered exclusively by renewable energy.
Big Tech, in particular, must take the lead—yet transparency remains a major gap. The report highlights Microsoft as a case in point. The company projects a staggering 44 TWh in electricity consumption by 2030, but much of its so-called “renewable” energy comes from certificates that have little real impact on emissions reduction. The risk? Data center expansion that perpetuates reliance on fossil fuels.
To prevent this, the report calls for companies to publicly disclose detailed energy demand forecasts and sourcing strategies. Renewable energy for data centers must be new and additional—not simply reallocated from existing projects. Furthermore, hourly 24/7 energy matching is critical. Data centers should prove they are consistently powered by renewables in real time, rather than relying on certificates that enable greenwashing. Lastly, governments must take responsibility for sustainable data center expansion, ensuring alignment with climate targets.
